Trump As a Person

Trump's indefatigable narcissism provides an extremely useful lens for identifying and classifying all the other patterns of his behavior and its effects. After all, for him, it is all about him. So let's start there:

• Trump is, at his core, transactional. He doesn't have principles, policies, long-term strategies, unbreakable allegiances, or even top-down staff loyalty. There is no indication I am aware of, before the assassination attempt, that he is religious. His life, including politics, is a long reality-TV series we could call, appropriately, The Art of the Deal. Keep in mind, for later, that most of his survival in business has consisted of serial bankruptcies, walking out on contractors and subcontractors, avoiding the rule of law in getting apartment occupancy permits (according to  documentaries on his business life), and (according to court files) deceiving banks about the value of his assets.

His general patterns seem to be that he reacts to events, deal by deal, in a world populated by those who flatter him versus those who do not.

• Trump is Machiavellian. Trump may or may not have read "The Prince," but he certainly could have made it into a sequel to The Apprentice. Bullying, threatening, publicly vowing to attack or otherwise take retribution against those on his day-to-day enemies list harkens back to Nixon's list, and seems to be the halcyon feature of the insecurity at the root of incessant narcissism. (Disclaimer: I know nothing about psychology, and perhaps it is showing. But the list aspect and retribution are indeed patterns.) Some of his opponents report receiving death threats from MAGA supporters.
  
  
• Trump is a congenital liar. While he may or may not know or care about this - or worse, be able to constrain himself - there is no question that he fills every speech with multiple lies, which are then fact-checked, rebuffed, and printed somewhere soon thereafter - with no discernible effect on Trump or his followers. (For historical reference, Reagan - who Trump seems to copy - used to be equally unattached to facts in his speeches.) But here one is forced to step back and ask whether, indeed, his internal reality has simply made external reality unimportant. (OK, another unavoidable psychological question in understanding the person.) The Trump world, to all appearances, is made of his private facts, told in his own way.
  
  
• Trump lives in his own, self-defined world, where nothing matters except what he sees and says. While all of us do this to some degree, few if any of us have made such a complete shift into cutting off reality. For example, it was impossible for Trump, in his world, to have lost the last election, even though he provably did. This is not a matter of debate; it is a description of a loser who could not face losing. Today, it doesn't matter what he thinks about 2020, but it does matter to the world that such a person might be president again - because, if elected, his unreality world will become the world's reality problem.
  
  
• Trump appears to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of Russia. How and why this came to pass may never be fully disclosed (we have some ideas), but the patterns are clear: in anything involving Russian interests, Trump acts in alignment with them. For those who have watched The Manchurian Candidate, the idea is almost unthinkable. Better get ready -
  
  
• Trump is a flatterer and a "flatteree." Trump is childlike in his positive response to flattery. Conversely, he uses flattery (and literal words of love) on virtually all US enemies, from Putin to Xi to Kim Jong-Un. Perhaps it's a genius ploy; but past results would suggest otherwise.
  
  
• Trump is not dangerous because of his ideas, which are merely controversial, but because of his personality, which is unattached to reality.

What We Can Expect

1. Tariffs and Trade

While Obama did almost nothing to counter China's attacks on the US and its democratic allies, Trump at least brought a potpourri of tariffs into play as president. This time around, he has recognized that we are in what Evan Anderson has properly titled in these pages an "all-front war" with China. To that end, he is proposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, with the potential of a 100% tariff on all imports of Chinese electric vehicles. He is also proposing, as part of his drive to re-establish manufacturing (and blue-collar jobs, and a middle class), a 10% tariff on imports from most other countries. 

In short, there is every indication that Trump would take seriously China's public plans to dominate the US and the world and fight back strenuously. Global trade takes a back seat to this program. To his credit, Trump seems to understand the SNS credo, long forgotten in favor of greed on the US side: "Don't exchange cheap goods for good jobs." This means prices would go up, as they should when not subsidized by one's economic enemy. This is by its nature inflationary, even though it is the natural result of rebalancing away from a prior state of economic serfdom.

The result of this should be a large-scale reshoring of jobs, a re-growing of the US middle class with wages that match today's economy, and a return to the innovation / manufacturing feedback loops that we have lost track of while building things like Facebook and Google.

Trump's pattern of recognizing China and its all-front war as the US's top security threat is supported by the US military's strategic view and by both houses and both parties of Congress. Unlike Biden (and unknown for Harris), he is willing to do whatever it takes to counter China's economic damage to the US.

2. Dictatorship on Day One

Like China, Trump tends to do what he says he will. But in this case, there is an inherent question set.

Would he act like a dictator on Day One of a new presidency? Absolutely. We recommend reading the 920-page "2025 Presidential Transition Project" by the Heritage Foundation, which we are taking as an absolute blueprint for Trump by his past and future staff:

Project 2025 | The Heritage Foundation

We are aware that Trump is saying this is not the case, but -

He's almost certainly lying, given the number of his past staff listed as authors.

What most people are probably not thinking of, but which would fit the recent patterns of the "new candidate" Trump (no discussion, no disagreement, as with the GOP platform meeting this year), is that he and his team may come in with 10, 50, 100, 500 new edicts on this first day in office. The country can spend the next four years trying to figure out what just happened.

The second question here is, since absolute power corrupts absolutely, why would he stop at Day One? He wouldn't; but saying he would softens the blow.

3. Removal of China from Most-Favored-Nation Status at the WTO

Great idea. While there is no process for this today, pulling out (see below) is a next-best alternative. But dumping China and undoing Clinton's work bringing them in would be better for everyone, as China has never followed WTO rules, despite its promises to do so. Dumping China would give the WTO credibility; leaving it would abandon the field to the enemy. Starting a new WTO2 without China might be an even better choice, but it wouldn't fit Trump's aversion to any international group.

4. Increased Spending on the Military, Decreased Taxes

Those members old enough to remember Ronald Reagan, with his soon-to-be disproven "trickle-down theory" of economics, will be right at home with Trump's campaign promise that he would spend more on the military, cut taxes, and balance the budget. Well, two out of three wasn't bad for Reagan, but number three turned out to be a simple pass/fail math test that the voters failed. Spend more, take in less, bust the budget.

This means that a Trump regime would bring vastly expanded debt, with all or most of its attendant problems - including national economic risk, inflation, degradation of currency value, and less money for social issues, including Social Security and Medicare. The US becomes more militarily, and less economically, secure.

5. Strong Support for Israel and Saudi Arabia

Following on from his last presidency and his family's business deals thereafter, we could count on Trump giving a complete pass to both these countries, for whatever they wish to do. We would also expect to see the Israel / Saudi pact reinvigorated. This also suggests that Israel would take over both Gaza and the West Bank, with no repercussions, and Netanyahu gets to stay in office.

If you are a Palestinian living in Gaza or the West Bank, if Trump wins, it might be the right time to look for a home elsewhere.

6. Internal Conflicts Over the CRINK Alliance 

If Trump continues to act like a rubber stamp for all things Putin, and to recognize and fight against China's war with the West, there is an obvious and unresolved tension coming up: what happens if and when Putin asks him to be nice to China, as part of the enemy CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and N. Korea) alliance? The likelihood, given Trump's recent comments about having Taiwan pay us for its security, is that he just turns a blind eye - not only to all things Russian, but to all things CRINK. Did I mention The Manchurian Candidate?

Is there a Third Way path available here, in which we make nice with CRINK while they attack from all sides, and we still prosper? Nah. But since Trump will apparently never cross Putin, if he's elected either Putin will use the US as its hedge against Chinese domination of Russia or we can look for Trump to make increasingly nice, flattering noises about China and Xi. The Iran vs. the US / West / Israel question would create the same conflict on Trump's agenda, as Russia would have to decide what role the US should play in the obvious tug-of-war.

Regardless of who is elected this year, it appears they will have to contend with a rapid nuclear-weapons buildup by all CRINK members, with increases in support and other weapons systems and their cross-border integration. The idea of four countries aiming nukes at the West as an incentive to just back off during territorial gains, economic or misinformation or bio attacks, etc., is just around the bend. And, while we will need strong alliance partners more than ever, economically and militarily, Trump's personality would likely weaken all alliances, as he intentionally did last time in office.

7. Withdrawal from International Institutions

Trump has suggested that the US either decrease support for, or leave, many international institutions - including, but not limited to:

NATO

WHO

WTO

UN

. . . and many international multiparty treaties

While the first four are historically obvious, members will recall the US pulling out of the Pacific trade agreement, harming our credibility with APEC-related trading partners (since we had created this treaty). Aside from the merits, it is possible that the author of The Art of the Deal is only comfortable with binary negotiations, where he can make deals happen on his terms. Interesting, eh? But not good at a time when the world is threatened with CRINK moving worldwide in its influence, economic, construction, information, and military campaigns.

8. Withdrawal from International Conflicts

Trump has suggested that the US either decrease support for or abandon its role in the following global conflicts:

Ukraine

Yemen

Africa

Taiwan

South China Sea

Israel/Gaza/Lebanon

Trump's Taiwan comments this week regarding paying for security sent US equity markets into a tailspin and smacked of early indicators of going soft on Xi Jinping. (He also told an interviewer that he and Xi actually get along, etc.)

Assuming an isolationist stance makes business sense if one compares the US strategy of being the world policeman for free with the Chinese stance of charging staggeringly high debt payments for each favor, or the Russian stance of exacting Mafia-like payments for every African mine the Wagner Group takes over and then protects. What CRINK does for money, the US does for democracy - and perhaps less obvious financial and political benefits.

9.  On Domestic Economic Issues

In addition to those domestic economic issues already mentioned, we can expect the following under a Trump return presidency:

a. Equity Markets: Big Tech vs. Little Tech

It appears that Trump (and Vance) would penalize "global" corporations for their willingness to help (and lobby for) our enemies, while actively working to assist midsize and startup US firms. Marc Andreessen, in moving with Ben Horowitz and the "PayPal mafia" to support Trump, created the above schism in tech company sizes, claiming that Biden was good for Big Tech but not for A16z's "Little Tech" entrepreneur-driven innovation ecosystem. Already fading in power, the SEC (Elon's primary target) would likely fade even faster under Trump.

b. Antitrust

The legacy of Lina Khan would come to an end and be erased, as antitrust actions would be reduced as part of the larger cutting of regulatory programs and reach, already heralded by the Supreme Court "Chevron" case reversal.

c. Income Inequality

Under Trump II, it is likely that the rich would get richer, and the poor would get poorer. However, with success in bringing good jobs back from China and protecting them with Special 301 tariffs, etc., this could be ameliorated. Trump could actually recreate the US middle class - not by taxing the rich, but by bringing high-paying middle-class manufacturing jobs back from China. This may be Trump's strongest offering to the overall base, and why he is attracting so many working-class voters. 

10. Immigration

I would expect illegal immigration to be yet more reduced, by a considerable amount, compared with even today's reduced figures under Biden's just-reversed asylum policies. The fact of this action would, of course, then lead to fewer attempts, circularly leading to fewer immigrants, and so on.

Summary

Many of Trump's ideas and policies, in the hands of a different Republican candidate, would be more attractive and offering of promise, even if controversial; but voters don't get the platform without getting the person.

Because Trump lives in a privately defined world - with him at its center and based on deals rather than ideals - the mid- and long-term economic effects would be radically different. On the surface, it is possible that there would be the changes that his base is looking for: reduced Chinese economic power resulting from a more complete disengagement by its top export customer; deep reductions in illegal immigration; a renewed middle class capable of earning a living wage through restored manufacturing jobs. 

On the other hand, there seems little question that the economic and political costs are off the charts: dictatorship, for more than one day; local militias empowered by his approval and encouragement; retribution against a list of personal enemies that is constantly shifting, with the Justice Department and the FBI the personal vindictive instruments of his office; and a near-casual disdain for the Constitution, the rule of law, and anything else that wasn't convenient, day by day, in a newly envisioned Imperial Presidency.

Would Trump and his now-cultlike party relinquish his dream of Imperial Presidency powers if they won in 2024 but lost the next election? No. And that, sadly, is also a pattern. All patterns suggest he would stay in power without the hindrance of further fair elections. What's more concerning:

He won't accept losing this one, either.

Your comments are always welcome.

Sincerely,

Mark Anderson

mark@stratnews.com

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President Biden's Letter of Resignation from the Campaign

Subject: "SNS: THE RACE FOR AUTONOMOUS AI: THE KEY TO GLOBAL TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC DOMINANCE"

Dear Mark,

I, for one, would be highly interested in learning more about your proposed workshop on Pattern Discovery!

I was just asked by a group of professors at the University of Maryland, Eastern Shore, to develop a program that would teach entrepreneurial leadership, and one of the issues that came up is how do you teach students to find opportunities. I have several of my own half-baked ideas on how to prime the brain pump to see opportunities, but I have read your book on pattern discovery and see that as a great tool for students or anyone who wants to be an entrepreneur.

Please keep me informed on your progress. Thank you!

Randall Reade

Executive Vice President
The Washington DC ArchAngels
dcarchangels.com
Washington, DC

Randall,

We'll add you to the list of people interested in a new program about learning how to use pattern recognition to make Pattern Discoveries - and yes, since this flips the scientific method on its head, it could be used for recognizing opportunities by entrepreneurs, just as it can by scientists or established business or political leaders.

In fact, there is a paper we at Pattern co-wrote with 35 authors from the National Labs, Cambridge, and Yale, called "Learning from Learning Machines," which explores pattern recognition applied to Explainable AI, and which you might also want to read. You can find it here:

XAI-ArXiv.pdf (patterncomputer.com)

Finally, thanks for reading the book; those who are interested in this subject

might find it useful as a guide to seeing the world through a "pattern lens"; it is available here:

The Pattern Future: Finding the World's Great Secrets and Predicting the Future Using Pattern Discovery

Mark Anderson

Mark,

I assume you are well aware of this counter argument. I find Gilder always makes me think, even when I am pretty sure he has some things wrong.

I would love to read your counter-counter comments at some point.

The China Hawks Are Lying Us into War

by George Gilder and Richard Vigilante

06/19/2024

Rollie Cole

Senior Fellow, Sagamore Institute for Policy Research
Author, Wholesale Economic Development
Austin, TX

Rollie,

George is an old friend, and I have always admired his grasp of tech and its effects. However, with no disrespect intended, this piece latches on to an IP theft figure and uses it as a straw man to make political points. To that end, it is useless - first, because, contrary to the piece, there has been very detailed work done on the value of IP theft costs to the US, and they are indeed in the $300B-$600B range, as best as we can determine; and these figures are now outdated and probably too small. Obviously, George is unaware of Evan Anderson's briefing book on China and this topic, called "Theft Nation," available at www.stratnews.com.

I used this book to brief the top officers of the NSA, CIA, FBI, NSC, the State and Commerce departments, and USTR in the US; the PM of Australia; in the UK, MI6, MI5, GCHQ, and the Cabinet Minister's Office; and, in the EU, Interpol and the French and German intelligence services.

But no, clearly, I did not brief George - or his co-author.

The overall tenor of this piece - that China is OK, and only political hacks see otherwise - is dangerously out of date and completely wrong and naive. It's the kind of thing one might have read in the '90s, or from a captive industry lobbyist today. For a decade now, both parties in the US have understood and agreed on China's malign role and activities - with Japan, Australia, the UK, and the EU also in strong agreement.

Perhaps the authors should stick with what they know best.

Mark Anderson

Subject: Comments wrt "SNS: THE NEW ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE"

Mark,

Article has much wrt what is happening, but less wrt why and the combinatorial effects.......

Thoughts on WHYs...

Basically primarily due to and recovering from COVID and the work from home overhang.

 1. The layoffs - During Covid business etc learned to be more efficient, learned they could do more with less, ETC.

 2. Outputs - There was pent up demand formed during COVID initially, that is easing up now

 3. Housing - to work at home seriously need a home designed or changed for work at home purposes, so increased demand, so cost increases, and money moves / follows such profits, not surprising

 4. Many working at home moved out of cities, so demand nature and location shifted

 5. Yes, and the effects of AI/Chatgpt etc, and THAT will IMHO become far greater. Track the some 36% of the econometrics which is the GIG economy, where many made redundant by the machines go....Many stories around wrt major Ai engendered layoffs

 6. Better products at cheaper prices available elsewhere....

 Locally, in Southern Va, plenty of jobs, nationally, much celebration wrt job creation.....????

 Companies are shifting from degrees to certification. Recent studies indicate Many degree programs do not pay off economically. Education is moving to the web, huge number of free courses, many from top universities. Autonomous AI becoming cheap "instructors" [guides on the side], building MOTIVATION into the online courses.

 Many , many things [aka nearly everything] in motion, changing much for a huge number of reasons, too many frontier techs and major to existential issues impacting society now, not much is "simple" any more........Except the huge impacts of PROFITS.

Best,

Dennis Bushnell

HFAIAA, FASME, FRAeS
Member, National Academy of Engineering
Chief Scientist (ret.)
NASA Langley Research Center
Hampton, VA

            Later in this thread:

Subject: Autonomy....

Mark,

WHY we still have pilots, decades after Essentially wheels up/down autonomous aircraft [ the first being the tomahawk cruise missile as I remember], is unknown unknowns.... Need to have for autonomous passenger aircraft, a system that can solve and execute in real time conditions that have not occurred before, not in the training data etc. [weather, traffic, equipage defaults, and their combinatorials....] at the system of systems level.

I wrote on this awhile back, overtaken by events now [attached].

AI can now create / ideate, innovate better than humans, and as add more training data, just gets better.

The issue is to CLEAN UP THE WEB DATA, so AI is more reliable....

THEN can do serious AI for autonomy, with results suitably fenced/ filtered to avoid adverse human effects........

Dennis

            And later:

Subject: Re: Trusted Autonomy

YUP!

As I sent, TRUSTED Autonomy is needed, THAT REQUIRES handling unknown unknowns, GANS level ideation and implantation in real time.

From techxplore:

______

JULY 9, 2024

 Editors' notes

Trust, more than knowledge, critical for acceptance of fully autonomous vehicles: Study

by Sara Zaske, Washington State University

While not yet on the market, fully autonomous vehicles are promoted as a way to make road travel dramatically safer, but a recent study found that knowing more about them did not improve people's perception of their risk. They needed to have more trust in them too.

This study adds to the evidence from other research that knowledge alone is not enough to sway people's attitudes toward complex technology and science, such as gene editing or climate change. In this case, Washington State University researchers found that trust in the autonomous vehicles' reliability and performance played the strongest role in improving perceptions of the technology's risk.

That may be critical to whether this technology will ever be realized, said Kathryn Robinson-Tay, lead author of the study published in the Journal of Risk Research.

Dennis

            And finally:

Finally, maybe a structural battery, a few years and maybe decent energy density.

'Weightless' battery stores energy directly in carbon fiber structures

By C.C. Weiss

June 18, 2024

The "massless" battery Chamers University of Technology researchers showed in 2021 served as an early prototype for Sinonus 

Sinonus

Building on the trailblazing carbon-fiber-as-a-battery work started at Sweden's Chalmers University of Technology, deep-tech startup Sinonus is working to commercialize a groundbreaking new breed of multifunctional carbon fiber. In its vision, the wonder-composite will save weight not merely because of its famously low base weight but because it will double as a set of energy-managing electrodes, becoming a structural battery that cuts reliance on the traditional standalone battery pack. The company believes this style of energy storage could help revolutionize everything from electric aircraft to windmills.

Imagine an electric car that isn't weighed down by a huge, kilowatt-hour-stuffed battery. It wouldn't need as much power to drive it forward and could rely on a smaller motor, saving yet more weight. Or imagine an eVTOL that could take off without lifting a lithium-ion anchor that requires it to be back on the ground within an hour for charging. Or a windmill with blades that work as their own batteries, storing energy during low demand periods for distribution at peak hours.

Sinonus hopes to write a future in which all those visions come true. It's hard at work on a new breed of smart carbon fiber capable of serving as the electrodes of an integrated battery."

Dennis

Dennis,

Thank you for all these ideas; although very early (of course!), I love the idea of the car body being made of the battery, if we can keep it from blowing up or catching fire. I continue to think that graphene is the answer to such puzzles and opportunities.

It would not surprise me, for instance, if it turned out that graphene layers, rotated vs. each other at distinct angles, provided enough Ezero potential to start acting as both terminals and batteries. This would certainly fit with its other strange geometric electronic capabilities.

And I also agree about trust vs. tech in autonomous cars and other machines. We have been pushing this idea regarding AI in general, and Explainable AI vs. GAI; the latter is not trustworthy, whereas the former is the path to trust.

Thanks again for writing in,

Mark Anderson

* On August 21-23, Mark will be attending the Veterinary Innovation Summit in Kansas City, Missouri. * On August 24, he will be attending the annual Seva / Larry Brilliant birthday affair in San Francisco. * On September 11-12, Mark will be presenting on behalf of Pattern Computer at the LSX World Congress USA Conference in Boston. * And on October 20-23, he will be speaking on a variety of subjects, and hoping to see many of our SNS members in person, at the FiRe 2024 conference at the Terranea resort in Palos Verdes, California.

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