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This January 11th,
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***SNS*** THE PERFECT DEVICE
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This January 11th, 2006 Issue:
***SNS*** The Perfect Device
IN THIS ISSUE:
Coming Up
Media Page
What options problems?
What’s in a Name?
Phone DNA: Samsung
Blackjack
Player DNA: iPod, iRiver
Clix, Sandisk Sansa, MS Zune
Computer DNA: CarryAlong
PCs from Vega, Samsung
Trujillo’s One Button
Phone
Apple’s One Button Phone:
the iPad?
Insites
Upgrades and Ethermail
Wireless Flavors and
Sweet Spots
WiMax, MS Programming
MS Research on Spam
VoIP
Terminal Drag: Employee
Blowback
Terminal Drag: Trust
Issues
Terminal Drag: Hacker
Crime Up in 2007
e-Phones Yes
Flat Screens
Online Ads
Spam
Billg and Robots
iPhones
The Members’ Corner
How to Subscribe, Including Corporate Volume Licenses
Coming Up:
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Registration is Now Open. Please sign up quickly, as
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____
The Fifth Annual Future in Review (2007) Conference, the one the Economist called "The best
technology conference in the world." FiRe is a unique, world-class
source of critical information on major trends in global technologies and
markets, discussed by those who make and profit from them. We will again
be at the beautiful Hotel del Coronado, in San Diego, from May 22nd -
25th. Go to www.futureinreview.com
to learn more and register.
Here is a sampling of what you can expect:
Major Themes for FiRe 2007
Energy Independence
Alternative energy sources
Improved transportation
Chinapan
Next-generation computer design
Fixing Healthcare
The New Europe
Systems Biology : Genetics in
Diagnostics
Stem Cell Research
Visual Computing
Strategic Philanthropy
Science Fiction
CTO Roundup
Net integration tools
One to One Computing in Education
Selected Attendees to Date
(to see a more complete list, go to www.futureinreview.com)
Martin Eberhard, CEO, Tesla Motors
Toshio Morohoshi, Executive Officer
Fujitsu Ltd., and Corporate VP, Fujitsu
Keith Blakely, CEO, Nanodynamics
Peter Diamandis, CEO, X-Prize
Foundation
Tony Fadell, creator, iPod, Apple
Kamran Elahian, Chair, Global
Catalyst Partners
Kim Stanley Robinson, Author, Red
Planet series
Reese Jones, Chair, Current
Communications Group
Joseph Kruzich, American Consulate,
Shenyang, China
Jonathan Murray, CTO, Microsoft
Elon Musk, CEO, SpaceX
Don Rippert, CTO, Accenture
Sidney Rittenberg, Rittenberg and
Associates
Martin Tobias, CEO, Imperium
Renewables
Doc Searls, Propr., Doc Searls IT
Garage and Sr. Ed., Linus Journal
Dave Winer, Editor, Scripting News
Larry Smarr, Director, UCSD Calit2
William Haseltine, Chair, Haseltine
Foundation
Randall Moon, Founding Chair, UW
Regenerative Medecine Institute
Stewart Brand, Founder, Global
Business Network and Long Now Foundation
Bob Hormats, Vice Chair, Goldman
Sachs International
Dave Vieau, President and CEO, A123
Systems
Larry Brilliant, Executive
Director, Google.org
Bill Janeway, Vice Chairman,
Warburg Pincus
The SNS Media Page:
You may see ALL SNS Content released to date by clicking
here:
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Video: “Fixing Healthcare”: A panel discussion with Ali Parsa, Chairman, Centres of Clinical
Excellence; Douglas Smith, CIO, Martin's Point Healthcare; and John Celi,
Partner, Health and Life Sciences Division, Accenture; hosted by Esther Dyson,
Editor, Release 1.0, CNET Networks
Here is the streaming link: <mms://www.tapsns.com/FireMedia/FixingHealthcare.wmv>
Audio: “A Radical New Space Propulsion Source”: A conversation with Jim Woodward, Adjunct Professor
of Physics, California State University, Fullerton; hosted by Jim Peoples, Vice
President of Marketing, GrassRoots Marketing
The podcast link is: <http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/fire2006-audio.xml>
Transcript: “Energy Technology: The Next Wave?”: A conversation with Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman,
Goldman Sachs International; hosted by Mark Anderson
Here is the link: <http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/transcripts/EnergyTechnology.pdf>
_________
The Perfect Device
Special Note to Online Readers: You should make an effort to read the .doc file
in order to see the graphics included in this piece. - mra.
This week, Steve (“The Magician”) Jobs turned his Reality
Distortion Field onto Stun during the MacWorld event, before showing off the
new iPhone design. It worked, and the stock went up over eight points that
day. And this happened despite the fact that nearly every story on Steve now
mentions his options backdating problems.
Before we get into Steve’s performance, on and off stage, I
want to provide a little Design DNA as a landscape setting for the Apple iPhone
(as compared to the Cisco iPhone). Probably in Steve’s eyes, and certainly in
the eyes’ of many fans, this new prototype is The Perfect Device. But is it?
Let’s start by asking, What is a perfect device? Certainly,
the 140K lads and lasses wandering the halls of Sin City in their walking shoes
at the Consumer Electronics Show are all in search of this Holy Grail - or
maybe it is more accurate to say, the vendors in this endless Museum of Now are
on this Quest.
Is this a meaningful search? Most 101 design teachers would
by now have interrupted us to inject: “Perfect for What?” or, even better,
“Perfect for Whom?” since “What’s” are not buyers.
(I need to take a moment to backfill for what appears to
have been typical SteveJ-like behavior: according to a Cisco report on CNet, it
would appear that Mssr. Jobs had the cojones to do his global announcement of
the iPhone without actually owning the trademark to that name. Worse, it
appears he has been negotiating for it for years with Cisco, which does own it,
which makes a product using it, and which had not come to a final agreement
with Apple before the show.
Isn’t that fascinating, if true? Would you do that? -- Just
walk out on stage and use someone else’s name? For a 2.5 - year
bet-the-company project? Now, to be fair, Cisco had apparently sent an offer
over the night before, after years of talk, but claims they had not received a
response prior to the show. If it was not a binding offer, Steve is in deep
weeds right about now. So, it must have been. Right?)
[pub. Note: Cisco filed suit on Wednesday over use of the
name. This piece was written Tuesday. - mra.]
Since this product was introduced as the iPhone, I am going
to start with the phone DNA part of its parentage and competitive landscape,
and then we’ll expand to the other two or three categories Apple and others
think it covers.
It just so happens that I did my own market research last
week, just before this announcement. First, I tested my existing RAZR phone
just as it was exiting its contract period, by running into the Baja surf with
it still in my pocket. It turns out that even the hair dryer treatment would
not bring it back from saltwater intrusion.
Then I went to my favorite Cingular store and asked Joshua
to show me the best phone in the place. “Best for what?” he asked, and I was
immediately encouraged I had picked the right guy. I told him I wanted
something focused on data and Net apps, and he took me to the Blackberry Pearl
and the Samsung Blackjack. Because I wanted to use the fastest bandwidth I
could find, and also test a Smartphone with computer (in this case, Microsoft)
applications, I picked the Blackjack.
Its main setback, based on CNet and other reviews: no WiFi,
which some folks care a lot about. But it has just about everything else, and
I bought it. Here it is:
Overview
The
Samsung BlackJack is a slim, stylish mobile entertainment and organizational
powerhouse. It plays: with Cingular Video and Cingular Music - exclusive TV
content and your digital tunes. And it works: with Microsoft® Windows Mobile 5,
Mobile Office TM applications, personal and corporate email and attachment
support. And it does it all at break-neck 3G speeds. Only from Cingular.
Included
Features
Microsoft®
Windows Mobile 5.0 Edition(TM)
Cingular
Music, Cingular Video and MEdia Net capable
Mobile
versions of Microsoft® Office(TM) applications
Windows
Media Player® 10 Mobile
Bluetooth
2.0® wireless connectivity
Simultaneous
voice and data capabilities
Quad-band
world phone with dual-band UMTS/HSDPA
Slim
design PDA with full QWERTY keyboard
1.3
MP camera with 2x zoom and video
Microsoft®
Direct Push for real-time email delivery
Mobile
Outlook®, Word®, Excel®, PowerPoint®, and PDF support
Email
- Xpress Mail, Good Mobile Messaging, ActiveSync, and more
Synchronize
your desktop and calendar wirelessly
Hands-free
loudspeaker and microphone
Instant
messaging capabilities
Fast
loading full HTML web browser
In many senses, this is the ultimate phone on the market
today: it’s really a small computer, with full-on push email services a la
RIMM, media player abilities, and a Treo-like mini-button pad that is probably
the most advanced form of that kind of input DNA. This last is important:
buttons that you can touch, that respond by moving, and you can feel in the
dark, are very important to some buyers. (Some Japanese teens can type SMS
messages in real time while holding their phones in their pockets).
I’ve only had the phone a week, but so far I think it’s
pretty cool. The Cingular folks have to get their video act together, and
battery life (3G etc.) makes one wish for the good old days, but it could be
one of the Great Phones.
And here, we need to take a moment to note again that
Samsung is just rippin’ ‘em these days. I asked my daughter what she was using
(having just bought a new phone at university), and she has a slightly older
Samsung. I asked Joshua what he thought of Motorola (Cingular’s oldest provider)
and Nokia, and he just made a grimace; he thought Nokia was particularly out of
date on the high end.
I told SNSers years ago that Samsung was going to claw its
way up the share ladder, and it is still doing it, with both MOT and Nokia now
running a bit scared, the earlier with disappointing Q4 numbers and the latter
with a self-avowed need for redesigns.
Let’s look at the rest of the DNA, then we’ll revisit this
discussion.
Coming from the audio/video side, everyone knows what Apple
did to demolish Creative’s hold on the MP3 market. It’s called the iPod, came
originally in shiny black or white with a silver back, and looks like this:
In many ways, the simplicity of this design opened up the
game to a new, minimalist approach to device (and, less often, user interface)
design: the candy bar with the flat black face. That, of course, was three
years and what seems like hundreds of line extensions ago; today Apple has
about 75% of that market, although iPod unit sales seem to be pulling up short
rather strongly this last few months.
While Kodak, Canon, Sony and others worked on the digital
camera, this was becoming a feature of the phone, with the concurrent (but not
well-thought-out) need to display what you’ve taken in real time. Cameras do
it pretty well, phones just getting there.
The Blackjack has a sharp 1.3 megapixel camera capable of
video as well as still shots, something increasingly common in these “perfect”
convergence devices. (The iPhone offers a 2 megapixel phone.)
In this digital age, putting reasonable-quality sound into a
device is not difficult; the question is more about storage size and software
ease-of-use.
The idea, as of a few months ago, was that we will have
Media Viewers, including sound, and that this whole feature set could be put
into a pretty cool design.
At about this time, we started playing around with the idea
of offering a specific media player to our members, where we could have easy
distribution through the Net to a cool device that members might take on a plane.
We could put all our FiRe interviews on a single device, for instance, and
just hand it out to members. They could stay plugged in during the week and
get new media from us automatically.
It’s a far-fetched idea, but I still like it, and, thanks to
our advisor Tim Reha in Seattle, we came up with the iRiver Clix as the
near-perfect device for the time.
What I absolutely love about this device is a) its outer
device design (this is the ultimate shiny black face; contrary to some
pictures, there is not even branding on the front when it is off, nor is there
an outer USB plug extension); and, b) the internal nav tools are intuitive.
You can customize it for your company, and drive a menu selection process just
by squeezing the edge of the unit representing the direction you want to go.
Fast, obvious, cool.
In fact, the Clix definitely passes the cool test in any
crowd I’ve tried. Hand it out, compared to any other device, and everyone
wants to touch it. This “Has to touch it” test is one of the best I’ve found
for initial market acceptance.
Soon after this came out, Sandisk delivered the Sansa, which
has more memory (the greatest setback to the 2GB Clix). It carried a similar
look, but slightly busier:
In order to defensively patch the iPod leak in overall media
sales (the iPod is really about the iTunes media site), Microsoft then entered
its “Zune” into the Perfect Media Device ring:
The design seems to be a direct take-off of the iPod, but
lacking in that flat minimalist approach perfected by iRiver. Meanwhile, to
MS’ credit, the Ultra Mobile PC design is a bit more about maximizing the glass
and minimizing the rest. Members will know this format as the SNS CarryAlong
PC; in fact, MS calls it the CarryPad. Here is a version from Vega
And another, slicker design from Samsung:
All of this brings us up to this week’s introduction of the
iPhone.
Let’s begin this part of the story with the Future in Review
2006 opening night speech by Sol Trujillo, CEO of Telstra, and past CEO of
Orange. Sol knows a lot about wireless users and what they want, and the
single strongest point he made that night was that he wanted a phone with “one
button.” Now, you can interpret this any way you wish, but a single button is
the only real break in the iPhone face, and the only place it sends you is
Home.
Here is the iPhone in phone mode, with its somewhat large,
very thin, totally black format, here lit up with finger-point selections:
Want a keyboard? As with the UMPC, it’s part of the
software inside:
For those who actually saw Steve’s speech, there was a rare
low spot when he was explaining this Perfect Device. First, he said he had a
media player, and everyone roared their approval. Then, he said he had a new
phone, and the place went berserk. And finally (I’m paraphrasing), he said,
we’ve got a new Internet Communicator.
Sorry?
That bullet point went over with the sound of an old pumpkin
hitting the garage wall.
If you go to the company’s site, you’ll notice that this
bullet reads “Breakthrough Internet Device,” which would have probably worked
better.
Small screens are terrible for reading, even sideways, which
Apple proves on its site (go try to read the NYTimes, portrayed on the iPhone).
And here we hit one of the other weaknesses of whatever kind of device this is
supposed to be: bad for reading the Times, great for reading SMS messages. But
- and this is a big but - bad for typing SMS messages, yet great for reading ranked
voice or emails.
What else on the Net will go well with the iPhone design.
Lots of things, including mapping and searching, following the very strong
trend of all data being GIS-tagged as we go forward. Add a GPS unit (not
included) and you’d really have something. Google and Yahoo! are both
partners, in maps and email and search, and here is one result for caffeine
freaks in SF:
Do I like the iPhone? I love it. Here is what I sent
members yesterday, in a Special Alert:
To All SNS Members:
Steve Jobs made his iPhone announcement at last, and the design looks like a
winner. FiRe attendees will recall Sol Trujillo's demands for a One
Button Phone: Steve just did his best to deliver it. The phone is a black glass
front, one Home button, thin, polished stainless back, candy bar format.
It includes a high end camera, plenty of storage, and the usual (video) iPod
innards.
I'll write more about this phone in the newsletter tomorrow, but we've all been
waiting for this event for a long time, and I thought you had best be aware
now: this design looks like a hit to me. The stock is up 8%+ on the
morning MacWorld news, including a new Apple TV wireless settop device.
The company faces copyright issues over the name, which Jobs appears to have
ignored going onstage (?); Cisco, the name owner with an existing iPhone
product in the marketplace, assumes (according to Net reports) that final legal
demands sent over to Apple last night are thereby accepted. Well, I
reckon they are. [Note: not.-mra.]
Brilliant minimalist design combined with big screen and tight integration of
mp3, phone, video, and web tools, makes this phone an Instant Winner.
One problem: it won't ship till June, giving competitors plenty of time to play
catchup.
Nice work, Steve. Can I have one?
Mark Anderson
Publisher, SNS
Not too long after, I got an email from my favorite
technology design person, Don Norman, of Nielsen Norman. He wrote:
Mark
And you can quote me as saying:
Brilliant. Apple has done it again. It just goes to show
what a company with a clear mission, a clear focus, talented design people,
especially including the CEO, can accomplish when they are relieved of petty
divisional squabbles within the company and the heavy hand of legacy
designs. It certainly helps when the CEO is a hands-on, details-oriented
design lover.
Remember, this is not a phone; this is a way of life. Steve
himself called it three different items rolled into one: A widescreen iPod with
touch controls; a mobile phone ("revolutionary mobile phone" were his
words); a breakthrough internet communications device. And it does
all three tasks wonderfully well, integrating them all together into a seamless
experience. It will have to be seen to be believed.
Great work.
Don Norman
Are there other problems? Well, it does WiFi b, g and n,
which means fast fixed mobile, but there was no mention of a cellular
connection beyond GSM. Since this is first of all an iPhone (despite Don’s
note), you’d think having 3G would be mandatory. Why have a beautiful 3.5 inch
screen if you can’t get videos to it?
Ah, that brings up yet another catch: you have to download
your stuff from your computer, preferably from iTunes: you can’t get it over
the airwaves. Smells like Steve, doesn’t it? Can you spell Control Freak?
People who were following my Predictions for 2007 will
remember Number Ten:
10. The iPod maintains its dominion
in MP3 for the year, but that dominance is increasingly challenged as iTunes
slips share.
In most eyes, the Zune will be
considered a failure during the year (although Microsoft claims it has only
modest sales goals for Year One). However, by the end of 2007 iTunes will
be beginning to lose share to other audio and video distributors with more
generous Digital Rights Management schemes (play on any/many players,
etc.). This could turn Wall St. against Apple, unless there is a new
story, like the fabled iPhone.
Well, the fabled iPhone is finally out. And while it may
itself be wildly successful, as the world’s first really simple phone, with
perhaps the world’s best interface (except for SMS?), Apple’s continued
Walled-Garden policy, in an age of Open Source, will continue to put both
iTunes, and any captive player, at a long-term disadvantage. I think you could
just add this to the list of ongoing grades for Steve over the years: Does Not
Work Well With Others. [Note: open source and interoperability turns out to
have been the breaking point issue with Cisco over name use.- mra.]
Finally, many noted the name change Tuesday from Apple
Computer to just Apple. Of course, Apple Records had a deal with Apple
Computer long ago that the latter would never use the name in connection with
music. Oops. No wonder a dispute flaired up over this after iTunes was
launched.
Do you think Steve cleared the name change with Apple
Records (technically, Apple Corps.) before he made the announcement?
Ah, Steve, you old kidder, you.
The iPhone represents a breakthrough in integrated media
viewing, communications, interface and industrial design. The company wants to
sell 10MM in Year One, and I suspect they’ll do better than that. Except I
suppose they’ll have to change the name to iPad.
Your comments are always welcome.
Sincerely,
Mark R. Anderson
CEO
Strategic News Service
LLC
Tel. 360-378-3431
P.O. Box
1969
Fax. 360-378-7041
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
USA Email: sns@tapsns.com
P.s. An hour after I finished this piece on Wednesday, this
hit the CNet wires:
Cisco sues Apple over iPhone name
January 10, 2007 2:59 PM PST
Cisco Systems has filed a lawsuit
against Apple for infringing its iPhone trademark, the networking company
said Wednesday. The suit was filed in the United States District Court for the
Northern District of California, Cisco said.
-------------------------------------------
INSITES
SNS readers interested in additional predictions and information
can turn their browsers to:
The SNS website, at http://www.stratnews.com.
The SNS Blog, at http://www.tapsns.com/blog
The SNS Media Page, at http://www.tapsns.com/media.php
SNS Future In Review Conference, at http://www.futureinreview.com
SNS Members' Corner, at http://www.tapsns.com/subscriber_corner.shtml
SNS Members' Gallery Spotlight Page: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php
SNS Project Inkwell: http://www.projectinkwell.com
The Orca Relief Citizens' Alliance, a
501(c)(3) non-profit effort to study and reduce Orca mortality rates, supported
largely by technology workers. Please visit our website, at http://www.orcarelief.org, for more
information. Contributions may be sent to: ORCA, Box 1969, Friday Harbor,
Washington, 98250.
New to the Family:
I would like to welcome, among others, these new members
to the SNS Family: Luigi Mercone, Senior Director, Product Strategy, Symantec
Corporation, Mountain View, CA; additional new members to our Corporate Group
at Altiris, Inc.: Sean Kelly, Strategic Alliance Manager; Rex White, Director,
Strategic Alliance - Dell; Jordan Gardner, Technical Strategist; Roger Shepard,
Strategic Alliance Manager; Todd Mitchell, Director, Technical Strategists;
Ryan Heath, Manager, Channel Strategy; Lindon, UT; Lars Christensson, Chief Executive
Officer, Aleios, Stockholm, Sweden; and many others.
Quotes of the Week:
"Apple has reinvented the phone." -- Steve Jobs
at MacWorld yesterday.
You should have reinvented the phone NAME while you were at
it, Steve.
"Given Apple's numerous requests for permission to
use Cisco's iPhone trademark over the past several years and our extensive
discussions with them recently, it is our belief that with their announcement
today, Apple intends to agree to the final document and public statements that
were distributed to them last night and that address a few remaining items we
expect to receive a signed agreement today." -- Cisco to ZDNet, on Apple’s
name infringement, on Tuesday.
"Cisco entered into negotiations with Apple in good
faith after Apple repeatedly asked permission to use Cisco's iPhone name. There
is no doubt that Apple's new phone is very exciting, but they should not be
using our trademark without our permission." -- Mark Chandler, senior vice
president and general counsel at Cisco; quoted in the WSJ after filing suit,
Wednesday.
"If the hypothesis is true, it would mean that we killed the Martian
microbes during our first extraterrestrial contact, by drowning due to
ignorance.” -- Dirk Schulze-Makuch of Washington State University and Joop
Houtkooper of Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen, Germany, on suspicions that
Viking killed the life it was looking for those many years ago.
"The title of [Carter's] book has angered many Israel sympathizers
because of the use of the word 'apartheid,' the South African system once used
to disenfranchise and oppress the black majority and empower the country's
white minority.” CBS News, on Jimmy Carter’s Peace Not Apartheid book.
“It's based on a minority of Israelis occupying, confiscating
and colonizing land that belongs to the Palestinians. When Israel does occupy
this territory deep within the West Bank and connects 200 or so settlements
(to) each other with a road and prohibits the Palestinians from using that
road, in many cases even crossing the road -- this perpetrates even worse
instances of ... apartheid than we witnessed in South Africa." --
ex-president Jimmy Carter, ibid.
“It’s the perfect crime, both low-risk and high-profit.
The war to make the Internet safe was lost long ago, and we need to figure out
what to do now.” -- Gadi Evron, computer security researcher for Israeli-based
firm, Beyond Security, who coordinates an international volunteer effort to
fight botnets; quoted in the NYTimes Monday.
"Single purpose devices are becoming less attractive. And the
converged devices taking their place are increasingly powerful and easy to
use." -- Nokia president and CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, in a speech at CES
on Monday.
“The new Democratic Congress does not weaken the lobbying ability of U.S.
automakers. With new plants in Mississippi and Texas, they gain a couple of
new senators. With the push for ethanol, you gain a couple of ag-state
senators, in places like Iowa and Nebraska." -- Sean McAlinden, economist
with the Center for Automotive Studies in Ann Arbor, Mich.
“Of the 206 articles in serious academic journals it analysed, more than
half of those who disclosed sponsorship were fully or partly funded by the
industry. Those that were industry-sponsored were between four and eight times
more likely to draw favourable conclusions.” -- FT story on bias toward
sponsors by scientists, in this case judging drink health effects.
“All of those sectors that in an area so important and
strategic for all of us as is electricity -- all of that which was privatized,
let it be nationalized. C.A. Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV), let it
be nationalized. The nation should recover its property of strategic
sectors." Hugo Chavez, in a televised speech after swearing in a new
Cabinet.
Keep it up, Hugo. Your stock market is in the toilet. Your
business sector is next.
“Dr. Insulza is quite an idiot, a true idiot. The insipid Dr. Insulza
should resign from the secretariat of the Organization of American States for
daring to play that role." Chavez, same day, on the head of the OAS.
“We are losing this war badly. Even the vendors understand that we are
losing the war.” -- Rick Wesson, chief executive of Support Intelligence,
noting more than 250,000 new botnet infections daily. A recent survey of 793
infected computers generated 54,926 log-in credentials and 281 credit-card
numbers. The stolen information affected 1,239 companies, he said, including 35
stock brokerages, 86 bank accounts, 174 e-commerce accounts and 245 e-mail
accounts.
UPGRADES
At 41+ pages, we decided we’d better give our readers a break; the large
Ethermail list this week will hopefully take the place of Upgrades. Look for
more Upgrades next week.
ETHERMAIL
Re: ***SNS***: Changing Radios
Mark,
Thank you for the overview of the threat of WiMax. As I see it the technologies
have all now appeared in implementable form and so we can at last get away from
the hype (e.g. 70mbit over 70km from WhypeMax) and on to the reality.
We at 3i, have seen a number of different plans for broadband based on UMTS
(HSDPA and HSUPA coming), WiFi, WiMax (both flavours) and 1xEVD0 (Revs 0 and A
in the 2000 and 450 variants). What is becoming clear is that there is no
single solution that is right in every circumstance, and each of these can in
turn be demonstrated to be more cost effective or credible a solution against
the others depending on the environment.
Those environmental variables that we have isolated - there may be more - are:
High density of population - favours WiMax and WiFi.
Spectrum availability - favours UMTS and CDMA2000
Lack of spectrum - favours
WiFi and WiMax used in the unregulated spectrum
Sparse population - favours CDMA 450
Availability of good copper infrastructure - favours xDSL with WiMax for remote
(>4km)
Availability of upgradeable Coax/CTV - favours cable modem with WiMax for
infill
Disposable income / GDP - favours WiMax as bandwidth is required
Lack of disposable income /
GDP - favours CDMA 450 as connection is more important than speed
Etc etc.
The one remaining bit of hype that remains is the capacity of these network
nodes or base stations.
Whilst you can theoretically get (e.g.) 10mbit speed per person on WiMax
802.16e (nerd) now (and will be able to on HSDPA, HSUPA and 1EVD0 Rev B by
2009), the practicality is quite different. The problem is that (for example) a
single cell is targeted to cover 600 user connections and has a total
throughput (kind of limited by the laws of physics) to the order of 30mbit.
[For some reason 600 per cell seems to be a number I see often in plans as the
target number to make the ROCE/ROI work!]
Most of the operators stick their heads in the sand and say that overbooking
(contention ratios) is common in the industry and overbooking by up to 50x is
not uncommon (which is a nerd’s way of saying that only 1 out of 50 will use
the connection at any time). On that basis the 600 users will have 50 x 30mbit
/ 600 bandwidth available or 2.5mbit, which is very acceptable - at least in
theory - for each of the 12 (max) users out of the 600 supposedly using their
connection at any one time.
Unfortunately we all know that we are moving to always on, and worse than that
moving towards lots of photo downloads, video downloads and IPTV. With all 600
connected "always-on" each will have an average bandwidth of 50k
(roughly the same as current 56k dial-up). Whoops! Your download of Pretty
Woman Video will take just 208 hours, 53 minutes and 20 seconds.
I don't see good reason for the xDSL operators and Cable operators to panic
yet.
Regards
Peter Gardner
[Partner, 3i
London]
P.S. I'm sure that some of your readers will jump to correct me on details, but
I am deliberately simplifying it to make a point. If cell capacity under Rev X
from manufacturer Y with no high rise buildings in the way is 42mbit instead of
30mbit then I willingly accept the correction - but the principle still stands.
P.P.S. By the way, I hope I don't sound negative about Cellular or WiMax
broadband, because I am not. As indicated in the bit about environmental
factors, I think that they are great solutions each in the right place, and I
could see us investing in the area. I just hope that reality sets in about what
they can actually deliver.
Peter,
Thank you for a succinct breakdown on these varying supply
techs.
I think I would have done my math a bit differently,
however; no matter what overbuild the carriers employ, that does not increase
bandwidth available to the users; of course, it decreases it. Rather than
divide by 50x600, however, I would just tend to ignore it, perhaps assuming
that either those other 49 folks really don’t show up, or else the system gives
them a raspberry while honoring some kind of bottom limit (i.e., dropping the
call if it is lower).
This gives me 50Kbps per user out of the chute, if your
original assumptions are correct. Sounds a bit off.
If we take those 600 connections, and apply the 1 out of 50
assumption, then we really only have 120 simultaneous users to divide by, and
the number goes to 30mb over 120, or .25mb, i.e., 250K. That’s about right, I
would guess.
The most interesting thing to me about all these techs is
that, once the busplan is done and the sales guys hit the ground, everyone
wants the dense urban areas - even ClearWire, the top WiMax installer.
It’s as though I had two boxes of money, a little box and a
big one. And then we asked everyone in the room which box they wanted.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Have you looked at the
Netherlands WiMAX company WorldMAX, whose rollout plans look like this? They
view it as mobile and urban all the way, as soon as the kit comes through.
Today
Fixed 16d
line of sight 5 cities
07 08
Nomadic 16e
Line of sight nationwide non LOS 5 cities 09 2010
Mobile 16e
NLOS 30 cities (covering 25% of the population and 50% of the business
community) 2011
Mobile 16e
NLOS nationwide
On the building penetration, I was discussing this with an Intel engineer just
the other day; his view was that you could tune the system to improve it but it
would affect the network, one way around it is pico-cells and it's all about
what you want to achieve. He didn't see it as much different from GSM reception
inside buildings today; good in cities, patchy in rural areas. My favourite
suggestion on how cellular operators can avoid being eaten alive by WiMAX -
which is far more extensible in terms of available bandwidth and # of
subscribers you can cope with than 3G; offer WiMAX data and use 3G for cheap
voice calls for the still large number of people who don't want to faff around
with VOIP almost-easy calling like Skype for Symbian and Fon which fail the
'can my mum manage it' test.
Guess which hyperconnected country has the first live WiMAX services? ;-)
Hope the New York dinner goes well ;-)
Mary Branscombe
Technology Journalist
London
P.s. --Deposits by phone?
Print a 2D barcode on every cheque that the phone camera can scan to confirm
that it's a real cheque and encode the account details precisely, snap the
cheque and send off a message, then drop the paper cheque into a pre-paid
envelope for confirmation; the deposit can be made straight away and 'cleared'
when the paper cheque arrives.
BTW this Vista shutdown argument? Please! The default two icons are the ones
most people use; the rest are on a sub-menu you have to click for so are
unlikely to be confused by. They also turn out to be what Spolsky's rather long
blog post eventually pinpoints as the best options to present to the user (very
faint, that damning praise). If you want to criticise Vista, criticise it for
taking so long to deliver something that's good when it should have been
excellent; criticise it for refusing the hardest fence (the object file store -
the Hamlet's father's ghost of Windows); criticise it for leaving out key
security technology (BitLocker) for all but Software Assurance customers.
But complaining that there
are too many kinds of liquor behind the bar? For me, the big questions
Lettvin's post (on which BusinessWeek.com based the article practically in toto
and I hate what that says about modern journalism) raises are - which teams
have enough/insufficient/undue influence on the components of Windows; how do
you train team leads halfway down the tree to recognise systemic problems and
how do you make the upper branches smart enough to act on the problems - and my
current favourite, why is such a big place as Microsoft with so much money
filled with people saying 'yes, but my team is too small and doesn't have the
resources to actually finish our product properly the way we'd like and you the
customer are asking for'?
Politics and management, not
technology.
If I don't see you in London it'll be CES or FiRE ;-) Any of the three, I'll
look forward to it...
Best
Mary Branscombe
Independent Technology
Journalist
London
Mary,
Smart letter as always. I know about WorldMAX, but not
enough to judge them. I would suggest that their schedule is pessimistic, for
any developed country.
I think Vista brought out some very deep organizational
problems during its delay and creation, and these were not problems easily
solved by the company’s best programmers and software project managers, which
makes me think the problems are deep structural issues. My experience with
this issue, though a bit limited, is that the teams do not work together well,
but often in fact compete, not just for resources, but almost on a testosterone
basis.
Microsoft needs a new programming model, one that incents
cooperation and compatibility, and allows for the flow of both top-down and
lateral priorities.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Interesting issue. Two
comments, on two separate topics.
First, on WiMax, you ask: why would someone need a cellular carrier? Answer:
coverage. As you point out, even with WiMax you need to trade off bandwidth and
range. While I have deep respect for Craig McCaw and Clearwire, they have a lot
of work to do in order to deploy broadly enough in North America (let alone
other international commerce hubs) in order to make coverage a non-issue. The
capital investment required, the regulatory hurdles, and the local permitting
processes in thousands of municipalities, are significant. Someday it really
might be a competitor for cellular; that day is many years off, however.
Second, on spam: don't fall prey to the Tyranny of the One Thing. There is no
one thing that will solve the spam problem. Microsoft is fighting it with
technology, with education programs, with a partnership with law enforcement
agencies, and by working with state and national legislatures to enact strong
and sensible laws. Microsoft has also been working with the various standard
bodies that govern the Internet, in cooperation with other companies, to close
loopholes that allow the bad guys to inject lots of spam into the system
through "ip spoofing" and open email gateways.
This is a war of escalation. All of the things I had mentioned above made a
significant dent in the spam problem -- until about two months ago when there
was a sudden huge jump in spam. The collective experts are on the case and are
responding in kind. Part of the jump was due to spammers' cleverness in finding
new ways to trick existing spam filters; it was also partly due to aggressive
use of armies of "zombie" PCs on the Internet that had been co-opted
into forwarding spam.
The email spam problem will end when the ROI on being a spammer is reduced to a
level that makes it an unattractive business. When that happens, the spammers
will move along to the next thing. In fact we're already seeing that with blog
spam and comment spam -- which on the surface look like ways to try to attract
more traffic directly to a web site, but are really methods for cheaply gaming
the ranking algorithms on the major search engines in order to artificially
elevate the position of a web site in search results. Same effect, though. We
have a researcher here at Microsoft Research who spends a great deal of time on
the topic; you can read more here http://research.microsoft.com/SearchDefender.
But let me reiterate the main point: there is no one thing that will solve the
spam problem. This is going to be a protracted trench war between two groups of
smart, determined people.
Kevin Schofield
General Manager
Strategy and Communications
Microsoft Research
[Redmond]
Kevin,
I agree that cellular looks to have a long future, although
I do expect a serious battle for the dense urban areas. The question may be
which tech provides the best average performance when traveling, plus peak at
home/office. It also may clue off of chipsets, since we are increasingly
seeing bundled receiver antennae/radios solutions. How this works with the
carriers is another question, of course. Having just lost the battle to keep
phones locked into their nets, they ought to next face the same question over
PC cellular cards.
Unfortunately, I also agree with your assessment of spam,
despite my optimistic suggestions in this prior issue. I’ve noticed the bump
up in spam you’re describing, and am worried that we have an increasingly professional-grade
group of spamiosa folk out there, from China to Russia to Bulgaria to, uh,
Bellevue.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
The rapid adoption of home phone VoIP services/options continues to gain
momentum (no surprises here).
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061216/ap_on_hi_te/ye_telecom
Marching along the same lines as your recent enablement mantra, this mega trend
will likely prove to be an enabler of many new interesting start-up
opportunities over the next few years at least. Thus, as an angel
investor and technology junkie always on the look-out for early stage start-ups
that possess both very cool and viable tech-based solutions, I will continue
scouring the VoIP landscape to see what other new synergistic trends begin
evolving. Something else to consider is that the Dems taking over
Congress will likely lower the protectionism shroud that had been granted to
the Baby Bells compliments of Michael Powell/FCC.
John Petote
CEO/Founder
CIO Solutions
Santa Barbara
John,
I have some trouble seeing the money side of VoIP, except in
business environments, although I certainly can see the feature list of why
everyone should want to go digital in their home voice communications. We also
have the problem of continued voice quality, which you don’t perhaps mind with
your junior sales guy in Tampa, but which you don’t want when talking with your
Mom or girl friend.
And yes, I think the FCC is already on the record as
improving, beginning with the net neutrality provisions put into the AT&T
merger deal after the Dems won.
Let’s hope it continues.
Mark Anderson
Subject: re: ***SNS*** Terminal Drag
Mark,
Enjoyed the Terminal Drag
piece, and the follow-on responses this week.
A point regarding Sun & MSFT’s firing of the bottom 10% of their staff:
Today/tomorrow this may be the cause of terminal drag.
The practice of forced stack ranking, with the intention being to reward for
high performance, and get rid of non-performance is an immediately understood
business tool. However, others argue, Lynn Brewer of Enron Whistle-blower fame
being one example, that this practice, particularly if used over time, creates
a culture of mistrust and unethical behavior.
Reducing this to its most basic, if everyone is angling to a get a good/great
rank in a system that does not have hard measures, and high performance is what
is measured based on the boss’s perceptions, eventually, gaming, cheating, and
unethical practice ensues (Remember the old adage, you’re not really competing
until you’re breaking the rules?). This is especially true when the results
being measured are difficult to measure and/or cannot be easily fit into
quarterly or yearly outcome buckets, or they simply don’t attach themselves
well to economic models. I think we’ve all heard of developers being judged on
the number of lines of code they produce in a day, and the absolute hilarity
that ensues.
Remember, too, that Jack brought this model to G.E. back in the day of
plentiful staff. Today, we face an altogether different staffing reality. As we
move forward into the near future, it’s highly likely that when you let someone
go in the U.S. at a technology firm, they will not be replaced for a long
period of time (due primarily to the pig-in-the-python baby-boomers about to
retire/re-think their careers, with many fewer replacements in the wings).
Thus, it’s not so much terminal drag, but rather nobody pulling at an oar for
the indeterminate future.
We are simply going to have to re-think our staffing assumptions to reduce
these forms of drag & lack of propulsion. We are going to have to figure
out how to get people who don’t fit well to be productive members of the team.
We are going to need to get much better at offshore outsourcing. We are going
to need to stamp out ageism, and see the value of people who are of retirement
age that simply love to work and want to provide what they know to be their
full value, and not just be a nice greeter at their nearby Wal-Mart.
Of the analogies you put forward, the wooden sailing-ship metaphor seemed the
closest to the realities faced by technology leaders today: Here are your
resources, your boat, your equipment, your sails, your rope, your food &
water, and your crew. Now, go circumnavigate the globe; plant a flag or two on
distant and resource-rich lands, and please, do come back w/tales of adventure
& conquest. We will want to know how you figured it out!
As always, thanks for the thoughtful article!
Thx,
Dave Hardwick
Hardwick Technical Recruiting
[Seattle]
Dave,
You’re absolutely right about retention problems. I expect
that there is another side to this as well: the more we learn about
productivity, the more we appreciate those folks who really are productive.
Keeping them will be a retention job for every employer.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
I'm reading SNS Terminal Drag on a plane to LA (probably the most fun I'll have
on the flight) and chuckling because I've repeatedly used the concept of drag
with entrepreneurs to extol the benefits of simplicity, clarity and focus. I've
been using a relativistic example, though--the closer you get to the speed of
light, the harder you have to work to move faster. It's the same asymptotic
in-law-off-the-plane concept but I've found the physics education of CEOs
severely lacking. ;-) I think I'll switch to your example.
More seriously, the ecosystem-wide problems of trust, risk and (semi-)illegal
activity are very real. In talking to banking execs about anti-phishing
solutions and system-wide risk management, I've gotten a first hand sense of
how worried they are about the problem--both the financial magnitude of it and
the erosion of trust (and hence consumption) that might arise.
One of the big problems in the industry is that we have no common ways to think
about and measure risk, trust and the types of threats you outlined. (Known
financial losses alone are a gross understatement, of course.) Without a common
framework there is little possibility for broad, meaningful dialog within the
industry. This is a huge problem. I have a startup attacking one sub-area
(Veracode) but there is so much more opportunity here.
Best,
Simeon Simeonov
Technology Partner
Polaris Venture Partners
http://simeons.wordpress.com
Sim,
As you’ll see from a following letter, the problem is
getting worse, and the bots are getting more focused on issues such as direct
thievery of bank passwording data.
There is a lot of opportunity for startups in this area.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Will 2007 be the Year of the Hack? This blog from former Gartner VP
Richard Stiennon is predicting a bannner year for cybercrime...
Sincerely,
Gregory Ness
Top Ten Threats for 2007
Posted by Richard Stiennon @ 12:07 pm Categories: Bank security, CyberCrime,
Security
http://blogs.zdnet.com/threatchaos/?p=443&tag=nl.e539
I had some time last week to think ahead a bit. I was on a twelve hour round
trip flight to Maui just to get frequent flier points with Northwest. I
know it sounds like a horrible waste but you do crazy things when you are
facing a year of commuting from Detroit to California in coach class. One
miserable evening will help me avoid a year of shooting pains in my knees..
So, thinking ahead to next year I created my predictions for the Top Ten
Threats of 2007.
1. 100% growth in revenue for cyber crime. There are lots of estimates
for just how big the cyber crime economy is. I peg it at over $1 bllion and
under $10 billion. Whatever it is today I predict that the quest for
financial gain will spur cyber criminals to a banner year, at least doubling
their overall take. ---
This is a sad list. I will
have to think of some more upbeat predictions as well. Where should I fly next?
Gregory L. Ness
Vice President - Corporate Marketing
Blue Lane Technologies Inc.
Cupertino, CA
www.bluelane.com
Greg,
I believe Stiennon is basically right. This is why I keep
writing (and talking) about the importance of cutting this off at the pass, if
possible. Now the Big Kids are involved. China, Russia, and others. Stolen
id’s almost by request, and by the pound.
It’s time we seriously raised the ante.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
It was great to see you again in NYC. The dinner was great and so was the
company, and your remarks were thought provoking and right on target. I
agree very much with your prediction #1 about e-wallets. See attached re
Cingular.
http://news.com.com/Cingular+turns+cell+phones+into+wallets+
in+N.Y.+trial/2100-1039_3-6143975.html?tag=cd.top
Regards,
Joe ONeill
Founder
TigerMountain Group
[Seattle]
Joe,
This is one prediction I am not going to worry about. See
the next letter. I’ll note that your news bit came about a week after our
Predictions Dinner, and the next citation a week after that.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Subject: FW: Helio Launches Obopay
Voila! You predict---it happens.
David Kirkpatrick
[Senior Editor]
Fortune Magazine
NYC
-----Original
Message-----
From: Chris Blake [mailto:chris@msrcommunications.com]
Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2006 03:58 PM Eastern Standard Time
To: Kirkpatrick, David - Fortune <david_kirkpatrick@fortunemail.com>
Subject: Helio Launches Obopay
David:
I'm sending along today's news from youth-driven mobile carrier Helio and
mobile payments service provider Obopay. (Please see below.) This new launch
comes hot on the heels of a similar go-live with Amp'd Mobile.
Obopay is enjoying rapid, viral growth among mobile users, because its users
can send, get and spend money just about anywhere. This creates an immediate
opportunity for banks, carriers and retail outlets of all shapes and sizes.
The company has secured financial support from QUALCOMM, former World Bank
president James D. Wolfensohn and others. Judy O'Brien, named among Forbes'
"Most Powerful Dealmakers" five years in a row, also made a rare move
in joining Obopay after counseling some of Silicon Valley's brightest stars.
Obopay has much in store these next couple of months. Please let me know if
you'd like to hear more. Thanks!
Chris Blake
Obopay Launches On Helio
Leading Mobile Payments Service Now Available to Helio Members
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., Dec. 20 -- Obopay, the first comprehensive mobile payment
service in the U.S., today announced it has partnered with Helio(TM) to offer
its service to Helio members. Readily available on the mobile deck, Helio's
young, connected members are now equipped with a complete end-to-end mobile
payments solution.
"We are delighted to be a part of such an exciting, cutting-edge mobile
service provider with a fresh approach to the market," said Carol Realini,
CEO and founder of Obopay. "With Obopay available on Helio's service, more
members than ever will have the power to easily get, send and spend money directly
from their mobile."
Obopay's comprehensive solution provides mobile customers with a real-time,
secure, mobile peer-to-peer payment service, which is linked to an Obopay
Prepaid MasterCard account. Obopay Prepaid MasterCard cards are accepted at 24
million merchant locations and over 1.1 million ATMs around the world. Helio
members are able to remotely manage their Obopay accounts by checking balances,
viewing payment histories, adding funds and more -- all from a user-friendly,
easy to navigate mobile application residing on the device. In addition to
managing Obopay accounts, users have access to advanced mobile device
personalization features such as contact list integration and specialized ring
tones.
"With the launch of Obopay on one of the coolest services in the market,
it's clear that mobile payments have arrived," said Howard Gefen,
executive vice president of marketing and business development, Obopay.
"No longer will consumers be stuck without cash. With Obopay on Helio,
members can add funds to their Obopay account while mobile, and that's
invaluable for those living the mobile lifestyle."
To learn more about Obopay on Helio please visit: http://helio.obopay.com
About Obopay
Obopay is the first complete mobile payment service in the U.S. that instantly
lets consumers get, send and spend money directly from their mobile phones to
anyone, anywhere, anytime. The Obopay management team is comprised of former
executives from Visa International, Microsoft, Yahoo!, Expedia, AT&T
Wireless, Western Union, First Data Corporation, Norwest Bank and Chordiant
Software. Obopay was founded in 2005 and is based in Redwood City, Calif. For
more information, please visit www.obopay.com.
Chris Blake
MSR Communications, LLC
Mark,
Thanks for the terrific dinner and very smart presentation last week. I
especially enjoyed your prediction about mobile handset payment - glad to hear
the US will finally start to catch up with Estonia.
An impressive group of people and much fine conversation. Thanks again.
Eric Pooley
Editor at Large
Time Inc
David and Eric,
This is obviously a big trend for 2007, already picking up
steam. I expect we’ll see more coverage of this in Fortune, Time and elsewhere
during the year. Glad you found the predictions list, and the dinner, worth
your time.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Subject: Here's a headline
from CNET today that appeared in SNS a year ago!
http://news.com.com/Year+in+review+TVs+go+bigger%2C+flatter+and
+high-def/2009-1041-6136775.html?part=dht&tag=nl.e433
Steve Waite
Founder, Consilient Capital
NYC
Steve,
We live to serve. We actually picked this trend out, and
named specific sizes and technologies, in July of 2005.
I’m getting ready to pick the best flat screen bets for end
of 2007, but I have a little more research to do.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
Could you elaborate on what you meant by, "The rapid movement of this
money to the Net will be a primary incentive for new company
formation"?
What areas in particular do you feel hold the most opportunity?
Thanks so much and best of the holidays to you!
Trent Dyrsmid
CEO & founder
Dyrand Systems Inc
Trent,
I mean that a) the movement of advertising monies into
online ads will continue to occur at rates above what most are expecting, b)
this is drawing from a huge ($200B) global pool of funds, so the amounts we are
talking about are large, and c) these funds will support (and drive) the
creation of many new online companies.
Since any site that aggregates eyeballs will be appreciated
by advertisers, I would suggest that the next opportunity is to segment these
eyeballs. Can you put together a site or sites, that only appeals to 15-25year
old girls? How about women 35-60 with excess disposable income?
This slicing and dicing is probably what comes next after
generic draws.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
We just turned on a new virus and spam checking device roughly a week ago for
the 20,000+ email accounts that we host.
This new device gives us some quick stats.
It has been running 5 days and here is what we have:
1,168,917 emails received.
1,107,016 emails blocked as obvious spam (94.7%)
6,787 emails infected with viruses. (0.6%)
2,487 emails tagged as possible spam. (0.2%)
--52,627 allowed emails. (4.5%)
As an interesting side note, the past few issues of SNS have all been tagged as
spam by my Microsoft Outlook filter. It doesn’t get many false positives,
but it has taken to putting your newsletter into the junk email box. My
guess is that you have so many URLs in the content of your newsletter that at
least one of the URLs is tagged as potentially evil by Microsoft. It is a
sad day when the most expensive emails I receive are tagged as spam.
I don’t have a solution to this problem, but someone better find one quickly
before we can [no] longer rely on email as a reliable communication tool.
Thanks.
John Rydell
[Networx Online
Ladera, CA]
John,
Thank you for the heads-up; other users of MS Outlook might
double-check their last few weeks and make sure that SNS is getting through.
If you have any doubts, just ask your ISP or corporate
support staff to put anything from our domain on your white list. Then you
won’t have to worry any more.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
I read the below Scientific-American article recently penned by Bill Gates
himself, and thought of you and all SNS readers:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanId=sa003&
articleId=9312A198-E7F2-99DF-31DA639D6C4BA567
Bill Gates is no doubt convinced that Robotics is the new big thing in
technology and I must admit that I agree with him. The vision as to how
this segment is evolving and where it is ultimately heading just all makes
complete sense to me (especially within the healthcare segment). Perhaps
you will see it as worthwhile to include more Robotic focused opinion pieces in
future SNS editions??
Also, I suspect that
incorporating expert robotic industry speakers at future FiRe summits will
further enhance an already exciting event. Your mentions of iRobot Corp.
in the past was the catalyst for my taking a serious interest in learning more
about this market segment.
Food for thought.
John Petote
Business Owner & Angel Investor
Santa Barbara, CA
John,
Indeed, we not only agree on this subject with Billg, it
sounds like we were writing about it before he picked it up. I wrote about
iRobot and its co-CEO Colin Angle in iRobot
appeared at our 2004 Future in Review conference. By Bill’s account in this
article, he got interested around the summer of 2004.
I remain very interested in Colin’s work, iRobot’s success,
and in other robotic efforts. In general, I tend to agree with Colin’s
approach: do important, simple things first, with machines geared for the
purpose.
The fact that Craig Mundie has taken a strong interest in
this field bodes well for MS’ continued participation, and his successes on the
technical side in finding ways to create programming tools for multi-processor
and decentralized systems, together with MS’ recent release of its first
Robotics Developers’ Kit, suggests that MS may help play a key role in bringing
robotics out of the university and onto Main Street.
Mark Anderson
RE: ***SNS*** Special Alert: Apple iPhone at Last
Mark,
Thanks for this cogent and
succinct summary, Mark. I have been hunkered down on other things today and you
just caught me up. Look forward to talking.
David Kirkpatrick
Senior Editor
Fortune
NYC
Mark,
I agree that the iPhone is
going to be a hit. Debating myself whether to go for the Blackberry Pearl
now, or to hold off until June and go for the iPhone.
On the one-button thing -
one of our analysts brought up an interesting point based on his own experience
using a phone with a software keypad. He said that he really doesn't like it
because it doesn't give him a tactile feel when he is typing. He said
that even though he loves everything else about his phone, he wouldn't buy
another phone without a true keyboard for that reason. I don't think it
will make much difference to sales of the iPhone, but I thought it was an
interesting observation based on firsthand experience.
Also, haven't seen much in
regards to the licensing, but another of our analysts pulled up this old
BusinessWeek article <(
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/
mar2005/tc20050324_7462_tc024.htm)>
that spoke of some of the challenges Apple might face in working with wireless
carriers. Don't know if you have any info on how they've addressed these
challenges.
Davin Juusola
VP Research and Development
Info-Tech Research
David and Davin,
The iPhone story has been good to SNS. Most of the most
interesting parts of the recent Apple story have appeared first / early either
in SNS or on the SNS blog, including the suggestion the options backdating
issue would not go away despite the company’s efforts, and the iPhone naming
issue.
Mark Anderson
__________
THE MEMBERS’ CORNER
From Sharon Anderson-Morris/“SAM”
Welcome to the SNS Members’ Corner!
The focus of the Members’ Corner is our SNS members, with
updates on your businesses, topics of interest, and your own comments. Please
send me ideas that interest you so we may pursue them here with you and your
fellow SNS Members worldwide.
What’s Happening at the Beach Palace Hotel II?
Hot SNS Member News
Remember ePALS? We all love
ePALS. We’ve written about ePALS, we’ve received Ethermail from Chair and
Co-Founder Tim DiScipio and CEO Jonathan Ewert, and they’ve been involved in every
FiRe Conference, some SNS Dinners and a couple of SNS Project Inkwell meetings.
You can’t find two guys more likable than this driven pair, and they and their
business are just the kind of combination you wish really great things for. We
love what they do (connect classrooms in 191 countries via email, which
inevitably raises GPAs), and we respect them for their honest enthusiasm and
passion for helping kids in the world. So it’s not a great surprise to see this
week’s announcement:
“Washington, D.C., January 9, 2007 – In2Books and ePALS Classroom Exchange announce
that they have merged. The combination brings together In2Books’ research
proven, literacy-based subject matter curriculum with ePALS’ network of more
than 120,000 collaborating classrooms and 7 million students in 191 countries.
This unique online environment enables collaborative ambitious learning
globally. The combined company, to be called ePALS, creates and distributes
research proven learning programs and services, as well as a suite of safe and
protected collaborative technologies, such as email and blogs, designed
specifically for K-12 school and home markets.
“Investors, advisors and board members now include Miles
Gilburne and Jean/Steve Case (formerly AOL Time Warner), Bill Raduchel (former
head of strategy for Sun; CTO AOL), Mitch Kapor (Founder of Lotus), Yossi Vardi
(Founder, ICQ) and Steve Arnold (Polaris Ventures).”
So congratulations, ePALS – it appears that you’ve
combined your worldly classroom connections with top-notch content, which will
no doubt further promote the great efforts and results you’re achieving in
classrooms throughout the world. It’s also cool that among the investors,
advisors and board members are some great longtime SNS Members and friends
– Steve Arnold, Mitch Kapor and Steve Case. We wish ePALS the very best,
and will be tracking their progress.
SNS New York Dinner 2006 –
Photo Gallery and Mailroom Are Open
We had a fantastic time with
new and longtime SNS Members at the second (sold out) annual SNS New York
Dinner on Dec. 12th at the Waldorf=Astoria. Thank you to the top
level of press present who wrote such great reviews about the evening. If you
didn’t have a chance to attend and would like to see the video of Mark’s “Ten
Predictions for 2007,” go to the SNS homepage: http://www.tapsns.com/. Following
Mark’s predictions was a lively Q and A session (not recorded). To see the
event photo gallery, click here: https://www.tapsns.com/newyork/2006/gallery.php.
To (securely) contact fellow attendees, visit the New York Dinner Mailroom: https://www.tapsns.com/newyork/2006/mailroom.php
Upcoming Events
1) March 15, 2007: The Fourth Annual SNS London Dinner, Home House, London.
Please register now to guarantee a seat! This will again be
a sold-out event. Price is $395 for SNS Members, and we encourage you to bring
along a non-member guest for a $100 discount, at $295. Click here to register: https://www.tapsns.com/london/2007/registration.php
2) May 22-25, 2007: Future in Review (FiRe) 2007, at the beautiful Hotel del Coronado, San Diego.
Register here: https://www.tapsns.com/fire/registration.php
**Please contact me directly at 435-649-3645 for more information
about attending or sponsoring any SNS special events.**
Other Updates from Around
the Globe
Many of you are involved in
some pretty interesting (and sometimes amazing) endeavors.
It’s exciting to watch SNS
Members climb the ranks in both the “for profit” and “not for profit” sectors.
Names like Ray Ozzie, Larry Brilliant, Craig Mundie and Gil Amelio come quickly
to mind, in addition to this week’s Spotlight Member, Elon Musk, another good friend and longtime SNS Member.
When I asked Elon what he’s
been up to since FiRe 2006, I knew I’d be impressed, but I had no idea to what
degree. Elon will be moderating a panel at FiRe 2007 about the most energy-efficient
car, manufactured by Tesla Motors, so I wanted to find out more about that
first.
Why is the Tesla Roadster so
amazing? Because it’s 100% electric, it’s real and it’s relatively affordable
– you can purchase one today for $30k with delivery in the 4th
quarter of 2008. Just click on “patient buyer.” Or, per the website (http://teslamotors.com/index.php?js_enabled=1),
you can receive it in the 1st quarter of 2008 if you click on “premium
buyer” and pay $50k ($6k down). The car has an incredibly high cool factor, and
it’s beautiful. Take a look: http://teslamotors.com/learn_more/wallpaper.php
The Tesla Roadster goes from
0-60 in four seconds, has the equivalent of 135 mpg, goes 250 miles per charge,
and costs about $.01 per mile to run. It even has an Apple dock connector for
your iPod. Bluetooth is optional. There are no door handles – it opens
with an electric switch, for security purposes. The trunk is even big enough
for your golf clubs.
We will have a Roadster at
FiRe 2007 for you to see firsthand, and Elon Musk and the Tesla team will be
there to answer your questions. Here are Elon’s descriptions of his business
life since our last FiRe:
“SpaceX: We won the
competition to design, build and operate the successor to the Space Shuttle,
which will be forced to retire in 2010 (http://www.spacex.com/updates.php). The
next Falcon 1 flight is in two to three weeks.
“Tesla: Sold out of
all production until Spring 2008. The Roadster won Time
magazine’s Product of the Year and numerous other awards, which are talked
about on the web page. Roadster design is essentially done, so the focus
there is on spooling up the production line and completing the endurance tests.
“We are deeply involved in the design of White Star, or W*,
if you want to be geeky, and have also narrowed down our factory location to
three places in the U.S. The target starting price for the basic model is
$49k…It will be a four-door, 5 pax sporty sedan, in the class of a 5 series BMW
or mid-range Lexus, although a lot better looking.
“SolarCity:
Made two acquisitions in the last few months and has seen
very rapid organic growth. The SF Chronicle
just did a front-page article on it a few days ago: <
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/01/06/HOGVMNCB361.
DTL&hw=solarcity&sn=001&sc=1000
<
https://mail.spacex.com/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?
f=/c/a/2007/01/06/HOGVMNCB361.DTL%26hw=solarcity%26sn=001%26sc=1000>”
Yes, there’s a theme here: Elon is involved with
cutting-edge, energy-efficient technology, from electric cars and
fuel-efficient rockets to complete solar-powered cities. I think he deserves an
Emmy-size “glow in the dark” award for his involvement in and commitment to
clean global energy and efficiency. Wow.
About Spotlight Member Elon Musk:
Elon is CEO and CTO of SpaceX.
The goal of SpaceX
(http://www.SpaceX.com) is to revolutionize
the cost of access to space, initially for satellites and eventually for
humans.
Prior to SpaceX, Elon co-founded and served as chairman and
CEO of PayPal, the world’s leading electronic payment system. Elon was a PayPal
director and its largest shareholder until the company was acquired by eBay for
$1.5 billion in October 2002.
To see Elon’s full bio and photo, go to: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php
If you aren’t yet represented in the SNS Gallery but would
like to be, please send your digital photo and bio (350 words or less) to me at
sam@tapsns.com, with a copy to our
Editor-in-Chief, Sally Anderson, at sally@tapsns.com.
Positions Sought/Opportunities Available
Positions Sought:
1) Position Sought: GM level, Sales and Marketing:
http://www.tapsns.com/members/resumes/resume1204.pdf
2) Position Sought: C-level/Strategy/Business Development
http://www.tapsns.com/members/resumes/resume1162.pdf
3) Position Sought: Product or Technical Marketing Manager
>http://www.linkedin.com/in/williammyrhang
Opportunities Available:
* = new
*1) Senior QA Expert; Company: iotum
“We are looking for smart, creative, energetic, honest and
hardworking people to help us build our QA team. Your role will include being
responsible for designing, developing and executing a comprehensive test
strategy for the full suite of applications and services that iotum provides.
For the right candidate, this Quality Assurance position can evolve into a
position of responsibility for building and leading a team of Quality Assurance
engineers.”
http://www.tapsns.com/members/resumes/iotum.pdf
2) Opportunity Available: Software Associate, TVM Capital in
Munich
http://www.tapsns.com/members/resumes/TVMAssociate.pdf
3) Opportunity Available: Senior Alliance Consultant
(located in Atlanta, Georgia): http://www.tapsns.com/members/resumes/resume1142.pdf
Please contact Shawn Russell directly:
srussell@alliancesphere.com
404-272-2887
4) Opportunity Available: Lead Research Consultant
Position located in Toronto, Ontario. To apply, please
contact Davin Juusola directly:
Davin Juusola
VP Research and Development
Info-Tech Research
djuusola@infotech.com
519-936-2646
The “positions sought” and “opportunities available” listed
above are just some of what is available right now. To see all listings, click
here (login required): http://www.tapsns.com/members/listings.php
Please utilize this Members’ service. If you are an individual in search of something
new, or you’re seeking to fill a position in your business, please send details
to me, and we will publish them to our elite group of SNS Members.
————
Happy 2007!
Sharon Anderson-Morris / “SAM”
Director, SNS Programs
W: 435-649-3645
C: 704-651-1238
sam@tapsns.com
Websites:
http://www.tapsns.com
http://www.tapsns.com/newyork/2006
http://www.tapsns.com/sanfrancisco/2006
http://www.futureinreview.com
http://www.tapsns.com/london/2006/registration.php
_________
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If you are not a subscriber, the prior Strategic News
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Conversion of your trial to full subscription will lead to thirteen months of
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VOLUME CORPORATE SUBSCRIPTION RATES: Below half price, upon
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COMPANY (10 employees or fewer) SITE LICENSE: $1495. TEACHERS' GROUP RATE:
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STUDENT and INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST RATE: $295.00 per year.
This service is intended for strategic thinkers who depend
upon business technology planning. The SNS charter is to provide information
about critical computer and telecommunications issues, trends and events not
available to managers through the press. Re-purposing of this material is
encouraged, with proper attribution. Email sent to SNS may be reprinted,
unless you indicate that it is not to be.
If you are aware of others who would like to receive this
service, please forward this message to them, with a cc: to Mark Anderson at
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--------------------------
About the Strategic News Service
SNS is the most accurate predictive letter covering the computer and telecom
industries. It is personally read by the top managers at companies such
as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, HP, Cisco, Sun, Google, Yahoo!, and Ericsson,
Telstra and China Mobile, as well as by leading financial analysts at the
world's top investment banks and venture capital funds, including Goldman
Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Kleiner Perkins, Venrock, Warburg Pincus and 3i. It
is regularly quoted in top industry publications such as BusinessWeek, WIRED,
Barron's, Fortune, PC Magazine, ZDNet, Business 2.0, the Financial Times, the
New York Times, the Wall St. Journal, and elsewhere.
About the Publisher
Mark Anderson is president of Technology Alliance Partners, and of the
Strategic News Service(tm) LLC. TAP was founded in 1989, and provides trends
and marketing alliance assistance to firms leading the convergence of telecom
and computing. Mark is a Seybold Fellow. He is the founder of two
software companies and of the Washington Software Alliance Investors' Forum,
Washington's premier software investment conference; and has participated in
the launch of many software startups. He regularly appears on the Wall
Street Review/KSDO, CNN, and National Public Radio/KPLU programs. Mark is a
member of the Merrill Lynch Technology Advisory Board, and is an advisor and/or
investor in Ignition Partners, Mohr Davidow Ventures, Voyager Capital, and
others.
Mark serves as Chair of the Future in Review Conferences, of Project Inkwell,
and of The Foresight Foundation. He is also President of Orca Relief
Citizens' Alliance.
Disclosure: Mark Anderson is a portfolio manager of a hedge fund. His
fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both
before and after the columns are published, and the position that his fund
takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information
in this newsletter represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.
On January 16th, Mark will be on NPR discussing predictions for
2007. And on January 19th Mark will be speaking on his Top Ten
Predictions for 2007 at the Technology Alliance Group NW section of the
Washington Software Alliance, in Bellingham, at noon, at the DIS Building, 1315
Cornwall, Bellingham; click on http://www.tagwsa.org/go/survey/482/126
to register. On January 22nd, he will be
meeting with HP management in Vancouver, Washington. On February 8th,
he’ll be hosting the FiRe Advisory Board in Seattle. On March 8th
he’ll be talking on future economic landscapes and phone design and markets at
Nokia headquarters in Espoo, Finland. And on March 15th he will speak at the
Fourth Annual SNS London Dinner, Home House, London. On May 22-25, he
will host the Fifth Annual Future in Review Conference, at the Hotel del
Coronado, San Diego; register at www.futureinreview.com
.
In between times, he will be remembering the rules for driving on sheet ice: do
it the same way that porcupines make love. - Very, very carefully.
Copyright 2007, Strategic News Service LLC
"Strategic News Service," "SNS," "Future In
Review," "FiRe," and "Project Inkwell" are all
registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.
ISSN 1093-8494
