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STRATEGIC NEWS SERVICE®

 

"Next Year's News This Week"

 

 

 

The most accurate predictive letter in computing and telecommunications

Read by industry leaders worldwide

 

 

 

This April 18th, 2007 Issue:

 

***SNS***  TRENDS THAT MATTER:

FIRE FIVE

 

 

 

 

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This April 18th, 2007 Issue:

***SNS***  Trends That Matter: FiRe FiVe





IN THIS ISSUE:

 

   The SNS Media Page

   Fake “Web 2.0”: Where’s The Money?

   What Makes FiRe Different

   FiRe Agenda

   FiRe Trends

   Highlights


   Insites
   Upgrades and Ethermail

      Following the LCD Money

      Intel Numbers

      EMC Numbers

      An Apple Cynic

      How Not to Manage your Band

 

      Members’ Corner


   How to Subscribe, Including Corporate Volume Licenses
  



The Fifth Annual Future in Review (2007) Conference, called "the best technology conference in the world," by The Economist.  FiRe is a unique, world-class source of critical information on major trends in global technologies and markets, discussed by those who make and profit from them.  We will again be at the beautiful Hotel del Coronado, in San Diego, from May 22nd - 25th.   Go to www.futureinreview.com to learn more and to register.

 

We would like to thank:

 

Hewlett-Packard

and Symantec as our Silver Sponsors

 

EMC

The Rodel Foundations

and Warburg Pincus as our Primary Sponsors

 

and

The Lux Executive Summit as Media Sponsor

 

For FiRe 2007.

 

 

Companies wishing to sponsor this event, please contact Sharon Anderson-Morris ("SAM") at: sam@tapsns.com or 435-649-3645.

 

 

The SNS Media Page:

 

You may see ALL SNS Content released to date by clicking here:

http://www.tapsns.com/media.php

 

Video: "Broadband Cellphones: The Next Platform": A conversation with Paul Jacobs, CEO, QUALCOMM; hosted by Mark Anderson. The streaming link is: mms://www.tapsns.com/FireMedia/qualcomm.wmv

 

Audio: "Who Are the New Robots?": A conversation with Colin Angle, CEO, iRobot; hosted by Gregor Berkowitz, President, MOTO Development Group. The podcast link is: <http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/Monday-audio/1013.MP3>

 

Transcript: "Near-Space Report": A panel discussion with Elon Musk, Chair and CEO, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX); and Chris Faranetta, Vice President, Orbital Space Flight Program, Space Adventures Ltd.; hosted by Tom Standage, Technology Editor, The Economist. The transcript link is: <http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/transcripts/NearSpaceReport.pdf>


___________


Trends That Matter: FiRe FiVe

 

I was thinking about the whole fake-Web 2.0 “revolution” the other day, and Web 3.0 and 9.0 and - and I had a truly shocking thought.

 

I had honed things back to Google, and re-jiggered the accounting clock to zero, and once again realized that the ONLY money Google makes is from advertising, and with its new attempted purchase of DoubleClick (if it passes anti-trust review), what you have is - a Big Ad House.

 

Then I generalized the thought, and came to the rather unsettling conclusion that Ad Money is the only new money in the game, if we reset our own accounting clocks to, say, 2000.

 

For all the talk about Web 2.0 (thank you, Mr. O’reilly) and other toolkit changes, there is no money involved.  Take all the social networking sites, and how exciting it is to have your own yearbook page with animation and lipstick, but - it’s still a pig.  And the only way that pig looks even mildly attractive is because someone is trying to staple ad money to its left ear.

 

In other words, people are not paying for all these glittery new things: ads are.  People buy storage software, or anti-virus protection, or OS upgrades, or applications.  All that stuff we were buying back in 2000 - and 1995, for that matter.

 

What does that say for today’s entrepreneurs?  They are either good at monetizing eyeballs, or they’re good at selling out to those who can.  What a low-end game!  You want some free toothpaste with that?

 

No wonder all the Valley VCs have moved into alternative energy sources: these are real things that people will spend real money (their own) to have. 

 

This is now the fifth year I’ve had the opportunity to put together an agenda for FiRe, and this has been enough time that threads have emerged along some of the strongest trendlines.  While those who have a chance to attend will learn much more about these at the conference, I realized that those members who cannot attend might like to have some sense of what trends I have picked, and why.

 

The beauty of FiRe is that it offers enough plenary time for us to explore both core trends in computing and communications, as well as other major trends in markets and enabling technologies (as genetics enables health, for instance), that our participants (one hopes) come away with a deep sense of what will be happening over the next three to five years - the toughest timeframe to call.

 

This week, we are at the point in planning where we now see the conference pretty clearly: the agenda is in its final stages of completion; all of the various trips, receptions, parties, meals, speeches, cruises, and demonstrations have been figured out; and we’re trying to make sure nothing has been missed. 

 

I think even those who are longtime FiRe participants will find this year to be remarkable in what we’ve assembled.

 

I did a review of technology conferences this year, and I can tell you exactly how most of them are structured: big city hotel, opening reception with no dinner, continental breakfast, regular lunch and dinner, half day the second day, and you’re outta there.

 

Here is how FiRe works: location in beautiful surroundings away from the city at the Hotel del Coronado; opening oceanside reception; full gourmet dinner in the Crown Room, the only room outside the White House where presidents have held State Dinners, and where Lindbergh spoke, as he began his test flight on the way to Paris.  Stir in two and a half very full days of plenary sessions.  A bus-over to UCSD for a reception and tour of Larry Smarr’s just-finished Calit2 computer visualization and photonics laboratories, where we’ll look at new data from Craig Venter’s CAMERA sweep of ocean genetics, just completed (yes, you’ll be the first to see this data, visualizing new genetics over three-quarters of the planet). 

 

We’ve added a new FiReStarters program, highlighting the top ten companies we (and our advisors) think will make a real difference in the next few years, with a separate exhibition and reception so you can meet the CEOs personally.

 

We’re continuing our Rodel Foundation / Thunderbird interns program, with two new amazing international business students, who you’ll learn more about in the weeks to come. And we’ve started a new program, thanks to sci-fi author (and now TV personage) David Brin, based upon his “ArchiTechs” History Channel series, putting the world’s top technology CTOs into a group and asking them to solve an important problem by week’s end.   And we’ll be asking YOU to give us that problem next week --

 

As usual, all of the meals are full, sit-down affairs, with spectacular food (and wine, when appropriate).  Thursday evening brings our popular dinner cruise of San Diego Bay, perhaps my favorite part of the week: a great chance to find those you have wanted to talk with, and watch the carrier groups and city skyline go by.

 

And Friday, after we’ve wrapped up, there is a special by-arrangement bus trip to the new Hewlett-Packard HALO facilities in Rancho Bernardo, where you can see the most advanced telepresence setup in the world, and maybe even bring one home for the conference room.

 

I am absolutely convinced that we spend more time and money on our participants than any other technology conference, which may be one reason the Economist calls FiRe “the best technology conference in the world.”  We’ll again have global press there, and can work with you or your staff to make sure that you meet them, or any participants of your choosing.  In addition, we’ve got our now-traditional privacy mail system, so you can set up your own meetings and begin your conversations early or continue them after the conference.

 

And the trends?  There are so many that I think the simple start is to give you our current (draft) agenda, and then make some selected comments at the end.  For those interested in Electric Vehicles, you’ll notice that we will have the Tesla Roadster production vehicle available for viewing at our first luncheon, as well as the Altairnano conversion SUV and SUT, and the latter will be available for test rides during the conference.

 

Here are the trends, and the people behind them, for FiRe FiVe:

 

 

CONFERENCE AGENDA: FiRe 2007: DRAFT AS OF 04.18.07

Tuesday, May 22

4:00pm - 6:00pm

RegistrationWindsor Cottage

5:00pm - 6.30pm

Cocktail Reception with live entertainment – Windsor Lawn

6:30pm

Welcoming Remarks: Sharon Anderson-Morris Windsor Lawn

7:00pm - 7:15pm

Welcoming Remarks: Mark Anderson – Crown Room

7:00pm - 8:00pm

Dinner Crown Room 

8:00pm - 8:45pm

Dinner Presentation: “An Ocean of Genes: the CAMERA Project”: J. Craig Venter, CEO, J. Craig Venter Foundation Crown Room 

 

 

 

Wednesday, May 23

7:00am - 7:50am

BreakfastCrown Room

 

7:50am - 8:00am

“Welcome to FiRe”: Mark Anderson – Grand Ballroom

 

8:00am - 8:30am

“Biomimicry: How Nature Can Inform Technology”: With Janine Benyus, President, Biomimicry Institute; hosted by Cynthia Figge, EKOS International

8:30am - 9:00am

“The Future of Energy on a Nano Scale”: Josh Wolfe, Managing Partner, Lux Capital; Dave Vieau, CEO, A123 Systems; Keith Blakely, CEO, Nanodynamics; hosted by Steve Waite, Managing Director, Consilient Partners

9:00am - 9:30am

“WiMax and Beyond”: Shahin Hedayat, CEO, Beceem Communications; hosted by tbd

9:30am - 10:00am

“CTO Roundup”: Jeffrey Nick, CTO and SVP, EMC; Mark Bregman, CTO, Symantec; Tom Malloy, CTO, Adobe; A Challenge Design, hosted by David Brin, star of TV’s “ArchiTechs”series and science fiction author

10:00am - 10:30am

BreakCourtyard

 

10:30am - 11:00am

HOTSPOTS I*: Six Personal Views of the Future

  • tbd
  • tbd
  • tbd
  • tbd
  • tbd
  • tbd

11:00am - 11:30am

“From Mainframe to Personal Healthcare: Proactive Technologies for a Global Age Wave”: With Eric Dishman, General Manager & Global Director, Intel Health Research & Innovation Group; hosted by tbd

 

11:30am - 12:00pm

“ChinaPan: Consumers and Producers of the 21st Century”: Joseph Kruzich, U.S. Consulate, Shenyang, China; Sidney Rittenberg, Founder, Rittenberg Associates; hosted by Scott Foster, Senior VP, HSBC Securities, Tokyo

12:00pm - 1:30pm

Lunch on the Windsor Lawn

 

Go Electric! Have lunch against a backdrop of sheer, shiny horsepower, fueled by electricity. See the new Tesla Roadster production vehicle, and Altairnano’s SUV and SUT electric conversions, on display for you to view “up close and personal”

1:00pm - 1:30pm

tbd

1:30pm - 2:15pm

“The Future of Personal Computers”: Toshio Morohoshi, Corporate Vice President and Executive Officer, Fujitsu Ltd.; hosted by Mark Anderson

2:15pm - 2:45pm

 

HOTSPOTS II*: Six Personal Views of the Future

  • tbd
  • tbd
  • tbd
  • Luigi Mercone, Sr. Director, Product Strategy, Symantec
  • Ray Siuta, HP HALO Marketing Manager, Hewlett-Packard
  • Kevin Walter, Sr. Dir. Strategic Initiatives, EMC

2:45pm - 3:30pm

“The Future of Printing and Imaging”: Vyomesh Joshi, EVP Imaging and Printing Group, Hewlett-Packard; hosted by Mark Anderson

3:30pm - 4:00pm

BreakCourtyard

4:00pm - 5:00pm

Breakouts (Locations TBA onsite):

I. “Big Energy from Small Things: A New Nano-based Fuel Cell”: Moderated by Steve Waite, Managing Director, Consilient Capital; with Josh Wolfe, The Wolfe/Forbes Report; Dave Vieau, CEO, A123 Systems; and Keith Blakely, CEO, Nanodynamics 

II. “Internet Security vs. Coordinated Attacks”: Moderated by Mark Bregman, CTO, Symantec

III. CTO Roundup: “ArchiTechs” Working Session, hosted by David Brin

IV. “Breakout Imaging Technologies”: Moderated by Vyomesh Joshi, EVP Imaging and Printing Group, Hewlett-Packard

5:15pm - 7:45pm

Reception and Special Tour of Next-Generation Visualization and Networking Facilities of the California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2) at UC San Diego, hosted by Internet pioneer Larry Smarr, director of Calit2 – Buses depart promptly at 5:15 from the hotel’s main entrance

7:45pm -

DinnerUnscheduled (Note: don’t forget 30-45 min. travel back from UCSD in making dinner plans)

 

 

 

Thursday, May 24

7:00am - 7:55am

BreakfastCrown Room

8:00am - 8:30am

Russia’s Future: From Military Superpower to Energy Superpower”: A conversation with Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International; hosted by Mark Anderson

8:30am - 9:00am

HOTSPOTS III*: Six Personal Views of the Future

FIRESTARTERS

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9:00am - 9:30am

Fixing Healthcare: Insourcing Answers”: William Haseltine, Chair, Haseltine Global Health LLC; hosted by tbd

9:30am - 10:00am

“Fabricating Fuel”: A conversation with Martin Tobias, CEO, Imperium Renewables; hosted by Mark Anderson

10:00am - 10:30am

BreakCourtyard

 

10:30am - 11:00am

aids2031: The future of AIDS”: Dr. Peter Piot, Executive Director, UNAIDS, and Under Secretary-General of the United Nations; hosted by Heidi Larson, Harvard Center for Population and Development

 

11:00am - 11:30am

“Tesla Motors: The Cars of Tomorrow, Today”: Martin Eberhard, CEO, Tesla Motors; Nate Lewis, Caltech; Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist; hosted by Elon Musk, Chair, Tesla Motors

11:30am - 12:00pm

“The New Europe”: A conversation with Leif Pagrotsky, MP and past Minister of Trade and Culture, Sweden, and Vice Chair, European Central Bank; hosted by Mark Anderson

 

12:00pm - 1:00pm

 

Lunch

1:00pm - 1:30pm

Strategic Philanthropy”: Peter Diamandis, Chair and CEO, X-Prize Foundation; Suzanne DiBianca, Chief Service Officer and Executive Director, Salesforce.com Foundation; Kamran Elahian, Chair, Global Catalyst Partners; hosted by Bill Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus

1:30pm - 2:00pm

“Arizona's Catalysts For a 21st-Century Economy - Science, Engineering and Medicine”: With William C. Harris, President and CEO of Science Foundation of Arizona; and Don Budinger, Chair, SFAz; hosted by tbd

2:00pm - 2:30pm

“Tomorrow’s Global Venture Trends Today”: Barry Taylor, Managing Director, Warburg Pincus; Simeon Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture Partners; Jeb Terry, President, Aberdeen Investment Management Inc.; Michael Pfeffer, Managing Partner, Kolohala Ventures; moderated by Jo Taylor, Managing Partner, 3i Venture

 

2:30pm - 3:00pm

 

 

 

 

 

FIRESTARTERS

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3:00pm - 3:30pm

BreakCourtyard

 

3:30pm - 4:30pm

Breakouts (Locations TBA onsite):

I.  “Fixing Healthcare”: Moderated by William Haseltine, Chair, Haseltine Global Health LLC

II.  “FiReStarters: How We Did It, From Conception to Product":  The FiReStarters CEOs

III. “Building the Cars of Tomorrow”: Co-moderators Martin Eberhard, CEO, Tesla Motors; and Alan Gotcher, CEO, Altairnano; with Nate Lewis, Caltech; and Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist

IV. “The First Successful SpaceX Demo Rocket Launch”: With Elon Musk, CEO, Space Exploration Technologies Inc.

5:00pm - 5:30pm

BreakCourtyard

4:30pm - 6:30pm

Meet the FiReStarters: Exhibition with cocktails in the Grand Ballroom

6:45pm

Meet in front of the hotel at 6:45 sharp to walk together to the dock!

7:00pm - 10:00pm

Harbor cruise and dinner aboard the Spirit of San Diego

 

 

 

Friday, May 25th

7:00am - 7:55am

BreakfastCrown Room

8:00am - 8:30am

“Regenerative Medicine: The Future of Stem Cells”: A conversation with Randall Moon, Founder of the University of Washington Institute for Regenerative Medicine, hosted by Mark Anderson

8:30am - 9:00am

“Diagnosing Your Own DNA”: Ryan Phelan, Founder and CEO, DNA Direct; hosted by Stewart Brand, Founder, the Long Now Foundation

9:00am - 9:30am

“SNS Project Inkwell: Taking Off”: CJ Holthaus, Centaur / VIA; George Warren, AMD; Craig Bartholomew, Microsoft; John Costello, Gateway - A panel discussion with Inkwell members, hosted by Bruce Wilcox, CEO, SNS Project Inkwell

9:30am - 10:00am

“To the Moon, Mars and Beyond": John M. Falker, Lead, ATA Strategic Integration, Constellation Program SE&I, NASA Johnson Space Center; hosted by Jim Peoples, Grassroots Marketing

10:00am - 10:30am

“CTO RoundUp: And the Solution Is --”: Jeffrey Nick, CTO and SVP, EMC; Mark Bregman, CTO, Symantec; Tom Malloy, CTO, Adobe; hosted by author and physicist David Brin

10:30am - 11:00am

“Looking Further”: A conversation with Kim Stanley Robinson, Science Fiction Author; hosted by Glen Hiemstra, Founder, Futurist.com

11:00am - 11:30am

“Your Turn: The Next Five Years”: A group conversation with Mark Anderson

11:30am - 12:00pm

Closing Comments and Adjournment: Mark Anderson

 

1:00pm  Note: Hewlett-Packard HALO bus trips to Rancho Bernardo for live demonstrations of this telepresence experience, during this afternoon, by special arrangement. 

 

There’s obviously a lot of meat on this bone, but here are a few selected trends that I think stand out:

 

WiMax and Beyond: Beceem Communications.  Broadband chips are the name of the game in computers, phones and nets for the foreseeable future.

 

Biomimicry: From wing shapes to protein structure, we are learning that nature has already solved most of our problems.  All we have to do is look carefully.

 

The Future of Energy on a Nano Scale:  FiRe FiVe will include the unveiling of a new nano-based fuel cell technology.

 

Fabricating Fuel:  The CEO of the country’s largest biodiesel facility gives the pragmatic view.

 

The Future of Personal Computers:  A rising star from Fujitsu shows the Asian view of both the computer, and the universe of technologies surrounding it.

 

The Future of Printing and Imaging:  As we move into the age of Visual Computing, Vyomesh Joshi of HP may be the person best positioned to describe, and create, that future.

 

Fixing Healthcare: Insourcing Answers:  Prizewinning geneticist William Haseltine turns his mind to importing medical prices from emerging countries with first-rate healthcare.

 

aids2031: The future of AIDS, with the world’s expert on this subject, Peter Piot from the WHO and UN; this isn’t going away, and in fact, it’s part of our future.

 

Diagnosing Your Own DNA:  Continuing the trend set by Nobelist Lee Hartwell, Ryan Phelan explains how to link your own genetics to your own healthcare.

 

To the Moon, Mars and Beyond:  NASA’s John Falker takes us there.  And let me add that Elon Musk will have his own breakout on the success of the new Falcon 1 launch; with film.

 

Russia’s Future: From Military Superpower to Energy Superpower:  Bob Hormats brings us his global Goldman view of how to work with Russia going forward.

 

ChinaPan: Consumers and Producers of the 21st Century:  If so, who’s left on first?

 

The New Europe:  Leif Pagrotsky, past Minister of Trade and of Culture in Sweden, and current Vice Chair of the ECB, shares his views of Europe’s future.

 

I know I haven’t covered them all, but that’s the point of being selective.  What are they saying, as a group?

 

Healthcare is broken, and will take enormous work and resources to fix.  This isn’t optional.

 

Computers come in universes of gadgets today, and those designs come from Asia.

 

Russia is going over a cliff politically, even as it grows economically; can you spell Dangerous?

 

Freedom from oil is years, not decades, away, if we put our investment into electric vehicles and alternative fuels.

 

China and Japan, enemies in the minds of one another and most of the world, are about to become primary allies, joined at the hip of economic interest.

 

There’s a lot more, but you can sense the combined themes here: these are areas of real, dynamic change, which will affect all of us.  These trends represent real problems with real solutions, for which future businesses, governments and consumers will spend real money.

 

This agenda, with other materials on speakers and participants, will be available on a constantly-updated basis at the FiRe website, where you may also register:

 

www.futureinreview.com

 

Regardless of whether you attend FiRe, if you’re in technology, you will need to understand how these trends work, what is moving them, and where they are taking us, so that you can infuse your product and marketing plans with that information.

 


Your comments are always welcome.


Sincerely,

Mark R. Anderson

CEO
Strategic News Service  LLC              Tel. 360-378-3431
P.O. Box 1969                                     Fax
. 360-378-7041
Friday Harbor, WA  98250  USA       Email: sns@tapsns.com


-------------------------------------------



INSITES

   SNS readers interested in additional predictions and information can turn their browsers to:

The SNS website, at http://www.stratnews.com.

The SNS Blog, at http://www.tapsns.com/blog

The SNS Media Page, at http://www.tapsns.com/media.php

SNS Future In Review Conference, at http://www.futureinreview.com

SNS Members' Corner, at http://www.tapsns.com/subscriber_corner.shtml

SNS Members' Gallery Spotlight Page: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php

SNS Project Inkwell: http://www.projectinkwell.com

      The Orca Relief Citizens' Alliance, a 501(c)(3) non-profit effort to study and reduce Orca mortality rates, supported largely by technology workers.  Please visit our website, at http://www.orcarelief.org, for more information.  Contributions may be sent to: ORCA, Box 1969, Friday Harbor, Washington, 98250.


Quotes of the Week:


   “The president must acknowledge that his conduct has compromised the integrity and effectiveness of the World Bank Group and has destroyed the staff's trust in his leadership.  He must act honorably and resign.” -- The World Bank Group Staff Association, demanding that Paul Wolfowitz step down.

 

 

   “Yet, it is alleged, the terms of the appointment, which appear astonishingly generous, violate a number of Bank protocols. Worse, it now appears Mr Wolfowitz personally directed the Bank’s head of human resources to offer his girlfriend these exceptional terms. Worse still, this has come out after misleading claims by a senior official that the ethics committee of the board, in consultation with the general counsel, approved the agreement.

 

“What then do we see here? The answer is: an apparent violation of Bank rules; favouritism that borders on nepotism; and a possible cover-up. It is true Mr Wolfowitz and Ms Riza were put in a difficult position. Even so, what has come out would be bad in any institution. In an institution that spear-heads the cause of good governance in the developing world, it is lethal.

 

“The World Bank has moved from being a self-proclaimed exemplar of best practice in corporate governance to an example of shoddiness. As long as Mr Wolfowitz stays, this can be neither repaired nor forgotten, be it outside the Bank or inside it. In the interests of the Bank itself, he should resign. If he does not, the board must ask him to go.” -- The FT, last Thursday.

 

 

   “We're not building another cellular voice network.  Our killer application for this new network is mobile access to the Internet.” -- Barry West, Sprint’s chief technology officer, to the Chicago Tribune.

 

 

   “It won’t be easy for OLED TVs to replace LCD TVs, but we would like to turn OLED TVs into a big new business.” -- Sony Executive Deputy President Katsumi Ihara, in a speech at a recent display forum.

 

 

   “It has been our vision to make Internet advertising better - less intrusive, more effective and more useful.  Together with DoubleClick, Google will make the Internet more efficient for end users, advertisers and publishers.” -- Sergey Brin, Google co-founder and president of technology, in a statement announcing Google’s intent to purchase DoubleClick.

 

 

   “Microsoft may well be using the program to bring in the best and the brightest.  But it’s definitely not representative of how the H-1B program is being used today.” -- Ronil Hira, Rochester Institute of Technology, noting that the top ten visa requestors were all India-based outsourcing companies; quoted in the NYTimes.

 

 

   “Officers, don’t fulfill illegal orders!  Officers, stop!” -- Mikhail Kasyanov, Vladimir Putin’s former Prime Minister, as he was arrested walking toward a government protest last week; NYTimes.

 

 

   “It isn’t possible to change this government through democratic means.  There can be no change without force, pressure.” -- exile Boris Berezovsky, in London, declaring plans to overthrow Putin with a coup.

 

 

   “We were walking down the middle of the pedestrian walkway, not holding any flags or even shouting.  They cut us off on both sides and when we stepped into a café the police pursued us and took us out.  I say ‘police,’ but they failed to identify themselves or give any reason for our arrest.” -- Chess grand master and opposition leader Garry Kasparov, on being arrested in Moscow last week; quoted in the WSJ.

 

 

   “They excluded people from a White House event because they posed a threat of being disruptive.” -- Lawyer for a private security guard (now being sued) who ejected Alex Young and Leslie Weise from a White House gathering because of an antiwar bumper sticker on their car.

 


UPGRADES

Following the LCD Money

 

Screens tend to represent the most expensive real estate in the PC laptop and phone worlds, and so are important from several perspectives: first, their cost bases set a low-water mark for overall unit pricing; second, this can act as a brake or accelerator on global sales of these platforms from year to year and quarter to quarter; and third, they require very large-scale investments, generally (not exclusively) are made in Asia, and depend on shifting technologies while seeking a return (Sony’s release of OLED screens last week would be Exhibit A).

 

Today, units sold basically distribute across three major platforms: TVs, computers and handhelds, with the sweet spot in size for each in the 27”+ (diagonal), 12” and handheld-range 2x2” sizes.  (Indeed, Sharp announced a new screen in this latter category this week, that will increase contrast by 4x.)

 

Well, that was yesterday.

 

This business is in for continued positive YTY growth rates, but the size landscape is shifting quickly.  On the high end, LCD technology is finally creeping into the 42”+ landscape long dominated (in pricing and sales) by plasma; I expect this coming Q4 to be the first quarter when LCDs outsell plasma in this critical battleground.  Plasma prices are already coming down dramatically in a defensive move, with new sales on at both Dell and Costco in the last couple of months. Although LCD may not be the pricing winner, its clarity and other winning features will still give it an advantage this year.

 

At the smaller TV/larger PC end, we now have a new size where the two overlap, and where clever sellers (Dell’s new offering comes to mind here as well) have positioned single offerings for both markets.  With the increased flattened rectangle of the new DVD and HD imaging, the increased use of PCs as viewing stations for entertainment content, and the ongoing repurposing of computer technology into entertainment rooms and jobs, it makes sense that these would merge.  Who needs two 20” screens next to each other doing different things?

 

As these markets merge, the push for Web page and entertainment display on handhelds is reversing the prior move toward smaller screens; the latest models of the hottest items are not square, but both larger and rectangular, moved by the same issues as TV/PC screens. 

 

All in all, it isn’t hard to see new converged Poisson distribution peaks for LCDs in the TV/PC and handheld markets.  What’s next?  A third major peak, coming in the SNS CarryAlong PC category, or what Microsoft calls “CarryAlong” on its site (after SNS, no doubt) and UMPC out in the retail world.  Better pricing and higher volume on 7-9” rectangular screens will make this the next growth area in LCD production.  It started last year, is still slow, but will pick up dramatically in 2008, as Asian manufacturers find its utility and move their own brands into the U.S. market.

 

I saw five or six of these last week at our Project Inkwell meeting, and they were all getting Wows from a pretty sophisticated audience (the Inkwell Working Group).  Asus, Quanta, Samsung, VIA, Compal, HP and others are all working on growing this category, and I fully expect they’ll succeed.  Get ready, Sharp and Samsung.

 

 

Intel Numbers

 

There are some quarters when the numbers come from great sales and new successes, and others when they come from firing everyone you don’t know well enough and turning the mess over to a great CFO.  This quarter would be closer to category B.

 

Net income for Q1 was up 19% YTY, to $1.61B, from $1.36B; on sales of $8.85B, down 1% YTY from $8.94B.

 

The company recognized revenues using money previously set aside to pay taxes, to pick up another $300MM (nice one, Andy Bryant); inventory remained flat during the quarter, although the company expected a slight uptick next quarter.

 

Operating expenses fell 15% to $2.76 billion. Intel said both research and development, and marketing, general and administrative costs fall. It also reduced its work force to 92,000 people a quarter ahead of schedule.

 

First-quarter gross margin was 50.1%, up from 49.6% the previous quarter but down from 55.1% a year earlier.

 

Clearly, AMD continues to put Intel’s feet to the fire, even as it plays catch-up in chip speeds and numbers of cores per chip.  You can literally feel the competition between these two companies in a new way, with the tables now turned: AMD is run by tech whiz Hector Ruiz, and Intel is run by marketing guy Paul Otellini. 

 

That’s a huge change for both companies, and it’s strange to see Intel announcing new technologies that AMD has had for several years.  Has Intel finally found the secret to competing with the New AMD?  I don’t see it.  That would involve coming out with technologies AMD would later have to copy.

 

 

EMC Numbers

 

And then there is the old-fashioned way of making money.  EMC continues to hit good numbers, by selling more.

 

Q1 profit was up 15% YTY, from $272.5MM to $312.6MM; on revenues up 17% YTY, to $2.98B. 

 

One area of strength was in sales of VMware, with revenues up 95% to $256MM; CEO Joe Tucci said he “easily” expects to see $1B in related sales total this year (the product line did $709MM last year).

 

A second strong suit was in overall revenues in Asia-Pacific and Japan.

 

Tucci noted that high-end growth in storage has hit a plateau in the 4% range, and that SMBEs is where the current and future growth will be. 

 

Overall, from this and other reports, one senses two major enterprise-level trends: a general move from capital investment to cost-tuning, and a simultaneous geographic shift in spending from the U.S. into other markets, primarily in Asia.

 

EMC was smart enough to pick up VMware, which grabs the first of these trends as virtualization cuts into server sales; and Tucci’s acquisition of RSA more recently will, I think, also pay off, as the company extends its own markets beyond storage into the security of what is stored.

 

This company is showing that it has what it takes in both execution and strategy to keep the ball moving.  Nice work, Joe.

 


ETHERMAIL


Re: ***SNS***  Nokia: At The Top Of Its Game


Mark,


You can call me the resident Apple cynic if you like. As to whether the iPhone is an original, check out the Onyx prototype that Synaptics - who make the sensor screen that does everything neat in the iPhone, like recognising a large area like your cheek or the inside of your pocket - was demo’ing around last summer. The document on their website is strangely familiar.

 

As to the DRM revelation; let's hope it's not EMI proving that there is no market for DRM-free content by jacking up the price and watching cheapskates stick to the DRM version.  (That's Simon Bisson's conspiracy theory but I'm not blowing it out of the water either, as the alternative is that the RIAA got smart and how often does that happen?)

Very good to see Evan Smouse in the family; I had very interesting conversations with him about mice and digital cameras some years ago and I'd been wondering where he'd got to ;-)

Mary Branscombe
Technology journalism & consultancy
www.marybranscombe.com

London

 

Mary,

 

I can see why Simon would propose such a theory, even if it didn’t equate to RIAA intelligence.  But I doubt that’s the idea. 

 

It’s much more likely, I think, that Steve had to fly with the most likely vendor first, in order to prove to (or squeeze) the rest of the crowd that DRM just wasn’t paying off in a copy-for-free CD-laden universe.

 

Even so, the question then becomes the issue that made Simon suspicious: will anyone pay the added fare for these added rights?  And here we hit the RIAA’s worst nightmare: what if the public has already set a price, in its collective mind, and that is now what the market will bear? 

 

For students, the price has been FREE for all their lifetimes, albeit not legitimately.  For their parents, it has always been $18 albums/CDs.  I can easily see a world in which one generation pays the premium, but doesn’t buy much, while the younger generation decides it is just Not Interested.

 

This is the greatest risk that the industry has taken, probably without even recognizing it: that, by dallying so long, it won’t lose everything. 

 

By golly, I think they’ve done it.

 

Mark Anderson

 

 

Mark,

 

This will make all SNSers laugh out loud.

http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2007/04/so_not_happy_to.html

Steve Waite

Founder

Consilient Capital

NYC

 

Steve,

 

OK, that’s the funniest business video I’ve seen in ten years.  It should be required viewing for every band in the world, if not every business student. 

 

-- Right up there with Spinal Tap.

 

Mark Anderson

 

__________

 

 

THE MEMBERS’ CORNER

 

From Sharon Anderson-Morris/“SAM”

 

Welcome to the SNS Members’ Corner!

 

Next Big SNS Event: The fifth annual Future in Review Conference (“FiRe FiVe”), May 22-25, at the Hotel del Coronado, San Diego, California:

 

In the weeks leading up to our FiRe 2007 Conference, I will be writing about some of the very special conference highlights. One of our most prominent highlights is the pioneer launch of our FiReStarters program.

 

FiReStarters – What is it?

 

We have selected 10 businesses – top startups or businesses with new startup technology – based on nominations by trusted strategic investment SNS Members, for world promotion as part of this pioneering program at FiRe 2007. These are businesses which we, and those businesses who nominated them, believe will change our world in a positive way. They are businesses we believe you should know about.

 

Why did we create the FiReStarters program?

 

Because we know our SNS Members have access to and knowledge of key world-changing new businesses, or businesses with new technologies, that are on the cusp of making great strides in improving our world – businesses that deserve recognition, we invited a select number of SNS Member investment firms to nominate businesses they know that fit into this high-caliber category for our review for this launch. From these nominations, we selected 10 finalists for FiRe 2007. These are businesses we hope to follow for a very long time.

 

What role will the 10 FiReStarters play at the Future in Review conference?

 

Up front and center (see agenda info below). In addition to promoting these businesses before, during, and after FiRe, we will follow up with each FiReStarter to learn how and in what ways their business has changed as a result of their participation at FiRe.


 

Will we have access to representatives from FiReStarters companies?

 

Yes – you will have the opportunity to meet the CEOs of all FiReStarters businesses, in addition to the individuals from the investment firms who brought these businesses to our attention. The FiReStarters and investment firms are on the FiRe 2007 agenda as follows:

 

Wednesday, May 23:

You will meet CEO Alan Gotcher of Altairnano and see Altairnano’s electric-battery-powered SUT (standard utility truck) and SUV on the Windsor Lawn during lunch. We will also be selectively awarding up to 10 test rides with Alan in the SUT throughout the week.

 

Thursday, May 24:

The CEO of each FiReStarter will briefly describe his or her business before the General Session in the Grand Ballroom.

 

Each FiReStarter will have a table set up all day in the Grand Ballroom.

 

Panel: "Tomorrow's Global Venture Trends Today": Featuring some of the smartest global investor SNS Members who are involved in the FiReStarters Program: Barry Taylor, Managing Director, Warburg Pincus; Simeon Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture Partners; Jo Taylor, Partner, Global Venture Team, 3i; Jeb Terry, President, Aberdeen Investment Management Inc.; Don Budinger, Chair and Founding Director, The Rodel Foundations.

 

“FiReStarters: How We Did It, From Conception to Product”: An afternoon breakout session for anyone who wishes to meet the FiReStarters and join them in discussion.

 

Meet the FiReStarters: Exhibition with cocktails in the Grand Ballroom: Last but not least, this is just what it sounds like! We hope you attend our more intimate cocktail reception, held at the end of the day in the Grand Ballroom.

 

———

 

I have previously introduced you to two of the 10 FiReStarters: Altairnano (http://www.altairnano.com/) and iCAD Inc. (http://www.icadmed.com/), both nominated by Jeb Terry, President and CEO of Aberdeen Investment Management Inc. (http://www.aberdeeninvestment.com/).

 

This week’s two featured FiReStarters are Veracode Inc. and Hawaii NanoSciences:

 

1) Veracode Inc. (veracode.com)

 

Veracode is the industry’s first provider of on-demand application security reviews. A spinoff of Symantec Corp., Veracode is the industry’s first company to leverage two key technology breakthroughs: patented binary code analysis that inspects the entire application (including third-party components) at the object code level and a software-as-a-service delivery model. Veracode’s core service, SecurityReview™, enables organizations to quickly assess security quality in any application or software component by identifying security flaws, the absence or presence of critical security features, and/or malicious code embedded in software. Veracode’s mission is to make it so easy and cost-effective that all organizations are able to improve the security quality of internally developed or externally sourced applications. Veracode’s management team includes security experts from @stake, Guardent, ISS, VeriSign, and Symantec.

VC Partner: Simeon Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture Partners

 

Participating at FiRe:
Matthew Moynahan, CEO (Speaker)
Ashish Larivee, Vice President, Product Management

2) Hawaii NanoSciences (www.hawaiinanosciences.com)

 

Hawaii NanoSciences (HNS) is a recently formed high-technology startup, bringing nanotechnology innovations to mature industries with existing mass markets. It has developed a strong technology portfolio over three selected industries: paper/pulp, oil/gas (i.e., fossil fuels), and consumer applied household products. In the paper/pulp industries, HNS has created a unique non-fluorinated, grease-resistant coating technology. It also has developed a novel approach to producing strong yet lightweight paper. Finally, it is pursuing foaming in paper manufacture.

In the area of fossil-fuel applications, HNS has discovered a natural extractant capable of purifying oil-contaminated soils and promoting extraction (thus recovery) of heavy crude. It also is working on lowering the viscosity of extracted crude so its transport over long-distance pipelines is facilitated.

Finally, opportunities abound for nanotechnology-led innovations in consumer-applied household products. The initial focus of HNS is a laundry additive that imparts stain repellency to washed garments and fabrics. The company is currently negotiating the commercialization of this product. HNS is currently working on a new website, which will be expanded soon to enhance its exposure for FiRe.

VC Partner: Michael Pfeffer, Managing Partner, Kolohala Ventures

 

Participating at FiRe:
David Soane, Chairman and CEO (Speaker)


 

This issue’s featured Spotlight Members are the CEOs of the above two FiReStarter businesses. Here is a brief summary of each:

 

A) Matthew Moynahan, CEO, Veracode

 

Matt Moynahan, chief executive officer of Veracode, is responsible for all aspects of the company, including strategy, operations, finance, product management, engineering, marketing, and business development.

 

Before joining Veracode, Matt was vice president of the Consumer Products and Solutions division at Symantec, where his key responsibilities included product management, product development, and quality assurance. In that role, he was responsible for the definition and implementation of Symantec Online Services. He also held the position of vice president of Product Management for the client and host security division at Symantec, where he oversaw product management and product strategy for enterprise client and host product lines as well as the Norton consumer and small-business product lines. Matt also served as Symantec’s senior director of Strategic Marketing, where he developed Symantec’s corporate business and marketing strategies.

 

B) David Soane, Chair and CEO, Hawaii NanoSciences

 

David Soane received his Ph.D. (1978) in Chemical Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley. From 1979 to 1994, he was a full-time member of the faculty at the Department of Chemical Engineering, UC-Berkeley, where he published approximately 200 papers and two books (Polymers in Microelectronics and Polymer Applications for Biotechnology). His academic research spanned a wide range of topics, including structure-property relations of polymers, membrane fabrication and characterization, polymerization reaction engineering, photolithography and interlayer dielectrics, gel and capillary electrophoresis, and novel MEMS devices.

 

Since his departure from academia, David has focused his energy on several high-technology startups. These ventures share a common theme: applying leading scientific discoveries to mature industries with established mass markets. In December 2006, David formed Hawaii NanoSciences to develop and commercialize innovations in nanotechnology for three industries: paper/pulp, oil/gas, and consumer applied products.

 

To see both Spotlight Members’ full bios and photos and those of other SNS Members, go to: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php

 

If you aren’t yet represented in the SNS Gallery but would like to be, please send your digital photo and bio (350 words or less) to me at sam@tapsns.com, with a copy to our Editor-in-Chief, Sally Anderson, at sally@tapsns.com.

 

———

 

More FiRe 2007 Highlights:

 

1) Hewlett-Packard has graciously invited FiRe Participants on a private tour of the HALO Collaborative Studio. This tour will change the way you perceive distance, presence, and communication. Space is limited, so if you would like to participate in this exclusive excursion, please contact Theresa MacDonald at HP (Theresa.macdonald@hp.com) to sign up on a first-come, first-reserved basis. Tour transportation will depart from the Hotel del Coronado on Friday, May 25, at 1:30pm, returning at approximately 3:30.

 

2) Reception and special tour of Next-Generation Visualization and Networking Facilities at Calit2, UCSD. On Wednesday evening, May 23, SNS Member Larry Smarr will host an update of last year’s extraordinary tour of Calit2 facilities and works in progress. Buses will leave promptly at 5:15pm from the hotel’s main entrance, going to the Calit2 photonics labs and more exciting new labs. Don’t miss these amazing technological advances, available for our viewing for the first time.

 

**Please contact me directly at 435-649-3645 for further information about participating in FiRe 2007 programs, or attending or sponsoring any SNS special events.**

 

Given our focus on all the new features at FiRe FiVe over the coming month, the “Positions Sought / Opportunities Available” section of the MC will temporarily be displayed only on our website. See the full listings at http://www.tapsns.com/members/listings.php, using your email address in lowercase to login.

 

I look forward to seeing many of you very soon at FiRe 2007, and more of you, I hope, at another upcoming SNS world event!

 

Sharon Anderson-Morris / “SAM”

Director, SNS Programs

W: 435-649-3645

C: 704-651-1238

sam@tapsns.com


___________________________

 

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This service is intended for strategic thinkers who depend upon business technology planning. The SNS charter is to provide information about critical computer and telecommunications issues, trends and events not available to managers through the press.  Re-purposing of this material is encouraged, with proper attribution.  Email sent to SNS may be reprinted, unless you indicate that it is not to be.

 

If you are aware of others who would like to receive this service, please forward this message to them, with a cc: to Mark Anderson at sns@stratnews.com; they will automatically receive a one-month free pilot subscription.

--------------------------

 

About the Strategic News Service

SNS is the most accurate predictive letter covering the computer and telecom industries.  It is personally read by the top managers at companies such as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, HP, Cisco, Sun, Google, Yahoo!, and Ericsson, Telstra and China Mobile, as well as by leading financial analysts at the world's top investment banks and venture capital funds, including Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Kleiner Perkins, Venrock, Warburg Pincus and 3i.  It is regularly quoted in top industry publications such as BusinessWeek, WIRED, Barron's, Fortune, PC Magazine, ZDNet, Business 2.0, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall St. Journal, and elsewhere.


About the Publisher

Mark Anderson is president of Technology Alliance Partners, and of the Strategic News Service(tm) LLC. TAP was founded in 1989, and provides trends and marketing alliance assistance to firms leading the convergence of telecom and computing.  Mark is a Seybold Fellow. He is the founder of two software companies and of the Washington Software Alliance Investors' Forum, Washington's premier software investment conference; and has participated in the launch of many software startups.  He regularly appears on the Wall Street Review/KSDO, CNN, and National Public Radio/KPLU programs. Mark is a member of the Merrill Lynch Technology Advisory Board, and is an advisor and/or investor in Ignition Partners, Mohr Davidow Ventures, Voyager Capital, and others. 

Mark serves as Chair of the Future in Review Conferences, of Project Inkwell, and of The Foresight Foundation.  He is also President of Orca Relief Citizens' Alliance.

Disclosure: Mark Anderson is a portfolio manager of a hedge fund.  His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the position that his fund takes may change at any time.  Under no circumstances does the information in this newsletter represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

 

On May 2nd Mark will be the opening speaker at the Washington Software Alliance Investment Forum at the Bell Harbor Conference Center, Seattle.  On May 22nd-25th, he will host the Fifth Annual Future in Review Conference, at the Hotel del Coronado, San Diego; members may register at www.futureinreview.com.  On June 15th he will be speaking in the EdNet Tele-Conference.

 



In between times, he will be watching the bright red fox as he passes back and forth along the seacliff just in front of the house, impatient, like the rest of us, for Spring.





Copyright 2007, Strategic News Service LLC

"Strategic News Service," "SNS," "Future In Review," "FiRe," and "Project Inkwell" are all registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.

ISSN 1093-8494

 

 

All content © 2010, Strategic News Service LLC