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This April 18th,
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***SNS*** TRENDS THAT MATTER:
FIRE FIVE
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This April 18th, 2007 Issue:
***SNS***
Trends That Matter: FiRe FiVe
IN THIS ISSUE:
The SNS Media
Page
Fake “Web
2.0”: Where’s The Money?
What Makes
FiRe Different
FiRe Agenda
FiRe Trends
Highlights
Insites
Upgrades and Ethermail
Following
the LCD Money
Intel
Numbers
EMC
Numbers
An Apple
Cynic
How Not to
Manage your Band
Members’
Corner
How to Subscribe, Including Corporate Volume Licenses
The Fifth Annual Future in Review (2007)
Conference, called "the best technology conference in the world,"
by The Economist. FiRe is a unique, world-class source of critical
information on major trends in global technologies and markets, discussed by
those who make and profit from them. We will again be at the beautiful
Hotel del Coronado, in San Diego,
from May 22nd - 25th. Go to www.futureinreview.com
to learn more and to register.
We would like to thank:
Hewlett-Packard
and Symantec as our
Silver Sponsors
EMC
The Rodel Foundations
and Warburg Pincus as
our Primary Sponsors
and
The Lux Executive Summit as Media Sponsor
For FiRe 2007.
Companies wishing to sponsor this event, please contact
Sharon Anderson-Morris ("SAM") at: sam@tapsns.com or 435-649-3645.
The SNS Media Page:
You may see ALL SNS Content released to date by clicking
here:
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Video: "Broadband
Cellphones: The Next Platform": A conversation with Paul Jacobs, CEO,
QUALCOMM; hosted by Mark Anderson. The streaming link is: mms://www.tapsns.com/FireMedia/qualcomm.wmv
Audio: "Who Are
the New Robots?": A conversation with Colin Angle, CEO, iRobot; hosted
by Gregor Berkowitz, President, MOTO Development Group. The podcast link is:
<http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/Monday-audio/1013.MP3>
Transcript: "Near-Space
Report": A panel discussion with Elon Musk, Chair and CEO, Space
Exploration Technologies (SpaceX); and Chris Faranetta, Vice President, Orbital
Space Flight Program, Space Adventures Ltd.; hosted by Tom Standage, Technology
Editor, The Economist. The transcript link is: <http://www.tapsns.com/media/fire2006/transcripts/NearSpaceReport.pdf>
___________
Trends That Matter: FiRe FiVe
I was thinking about the whole fake-Web 2.0 “revolution” the
other day, and Web 3.0 and 9.0 and - and I had a truly shocking thought.
I had honed things back to Google, and re-jiggered the
accounting clock to zero, and once again realized that the ONLY money Google
makes is from advertising, and with its new attempted purchase of DoubleClick
(if it passes anti-trust review), what you have is - a Big Ad House.
Then I generalized the thought, and came to the rather
unsettling conclusion that Ad Money is the only new money in the game, if we
reset our own accounting clocks to, say, 2000.
For all the talk about Web 2.0 (thank you, Mr. O’reilly) and
other toolkit changes, there is no money involved. Take all the social networking sites, and how
exciting it is to have your own yearbook page with animation and lipstick, but
- it’s still a pig. And the only way
that pig looks even mildly attractive is because someone is trying to staple ad
money to its left ear.
In other words, people are not paying for all these glittery
new things: ads are. People buy storage
software, or anti-virus protection, or OS upgrades, or applications. All that stuff we were buying back in 2000 -
and 1995, for that matter.
What does that say for today’s entrepreneurs? They are either good at monetizing eyeballs,
or they’re good at selling out to those who can. What a low-end game! You want some free toothpaste with that?
No wonder all the Valley VCs have moved into alternative
energy sources: these are real things that people will spend real money (their
own) to have.
This is now the fifth year I’ve had the opportunity to put
together an agenda for FiRe, and this has been enough time that threads have
emerged along some of the strongest trendlines.
While those who have a chance to attend will learn much more about these
at the conference, I realized that those members who cannot attend might like
to have some sense of what trends I have picked, and why.
The beauty of FiRe is that it offers enough plenary time for
us to explore both core trends in computing and communications, as well as
other major trends in markets and enabling technologies (as genetics enables
health, for instance), that our participants (one hopes) come away with a deep
sense of what will be happening over the next three to five years - the
toughest timeframe to call.
This week, we are at the point in planning where we now see
the conference pretty clearly: the agenda is in its final stages of completion;
all of the various trips, receptions, parties, meals, speeches, cruises, and
demonstrations have been figured out; and we’re trying to make sure nothing has
been missed.
I think even those who are longtime FiRe participants will
find this year to be remarkable in what we’ve assembled.
I did a review of technology conferences this year, and I
can tell you exactly how most of them are structured: big city hotel, opening
reception with no dinner, continental breakfast, regular lunch and dinner, half
day the second day, and you’re outta there.
Here is how FiRe works: location in beautiful surroundings
away from the city at the Hotel del Coronado; opening oceanside
reception; full gourmet dinner in the Crown Room, the only room outside the
White House where presidents have held State Dinners, and where Lindbergh spoke,
as he began his test flight on the way to Paris. Stir in two and a half very full days of
plenary sessions. A bus-over to UCSD for
a reception and tour of Larry Smarr’s just-finished Calit2 computer
visualization and photonics laboratories, where we’ll look at new data from
Craig Venter’s CAMERA sweep of ocean genetics, just completed (yes, you’ll be
the first to see this data, visualizing new genetics over three-quarters of the
planet).
We’ve added a new FiReStarters program, highlighting the top
ten companies we (and our advisors) think will make a real difference in the
next few years, with a separate exhibition and reception so you can meet the
CEOs personally.
We’re continuing our Rodel Foundation / Thunderbird interns
program, with two new amazing international business students, who you’ll learn
more about in the weeks to come. And we’ve started a new program, thanks to
sci-fi author (and now TV personage) David Brin, based upon his “ArchiTechs”
History Channel series, putting the world’s top technology CTOs into a group
and asking them to solve an important problem by week’s end. And we’ll be asking YOU to give us that
problem next week --
As usual, all of the meals are full, sit-down affairs, with
spectacular food (and wine, when appropriate).
Thursday evening brings our popular dinner cruise of San Diego Bay,
perhaps my favorite part of the week: a great chance to find those you have
wanted to talk with, and watch the carrier groups and city skyline go by.
And Friday, after we’ve wrapped up, there is a special
by-arrangement bus trip to the new Hewlett-Packard HALO facilities in Rancho
Bernardo, where you can see the most advanced telepresence setup in the world,
and maybe even bring one home for the conference room.
I am absolutely convinced that we spend more time and money
on our participants than any other technology conference, which may be one
reason the Economist calls FiRe “the best technology conference in the
world.” We’ll again have global press
there, and can work with you or your staff to make sure that you meet them, or
any participants of your choosing. In
addition, we’ve got our now-traditional privacy mail system, so you can set up your
own meetings and begin your conversations early or continue them after the
conference.
And the trends? There
are so many that I think the simple start is to give you our current (draft)
agenda, and then make some selected comments at the end. For those interested in Electric Vehicles,
you’ll notice that we will have the Tesla Roadster production vehicle available
for viewing at our first luncheon, as well as the Altairnano conversion SUV and
SUT, and the latter will be available for test rides during the conference.
Here are the trends, and the people behind them, for FiRe
FiVe:
CONFERENCE AGENDA: FiRe 2007: DRAFT AS OF 04.18.07
|
Tuesday,
May 22
|
|
4:00pm -
6:00pm
|
Registration – Windsor
Cottage
|
|
5:00pm -
6.30pm
|
Cocktail Reception with live entertainment – Windsor Lawn
|
|
6:30pm
|
Welcoming Remarks: Sharon Anderson-Morris – Windsor
Lawn
|
|
7:00pm -
7:15pm
|
Welcoming Remarks: Mark Anderson –
Crown Room
|
|
7:00pm -
8:00pm
|
Dinner – Crown
Room
|
|
8:00pm -
8:45pm
|
Dinner Presentation: “An
Ocean of Genes: the CAMERA Project”: J. Craig
Venter, CEO, J. Craig Venter Foundation – Crown Room
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wednesday,
May 23
|
|
7:00am -
7:50am
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Breakfast – Crown Room
|
|
7:50am -
8:00am
|
“Welcome to FiRe”: Mark Anderson – Grand
Ballroom
|
|
8:00am -
8:30am
|
“Biomimicry: How Nature Can Inform Technology”: With Janine Benyus, President,
Biomimicry Institute; hosted by Cynthia Figge, EKOS International
|
|
8:30am -
9:00am
|
“The Future of Energy on a Nano Scale”: Josh Wolfe,
Managing Partner, Lux Capital; Dave Vieau, CEO, A123 Systems; Keith Blakely, CEO, Nanodynamics;
hosted by Steve Waite, Managing Director, Consilient Partners
|
|
9:00am -
9:30am
|
“WiMax and Beyond”: Shahin Hedayat, CEO, Beceem Communications; hosted by tbd
|
|
9:30am -
10:00am
|
“CTO Roundup”: Jeffrey Nick, CTO and SVP, EMC; Mark Bregman, CTO, Symantec; Tom
Malloy, CTO, Adobe; A Challenge Design, hosted by David Brin, star of TV’s
“ArchiTechs”series and science fiction author
|
|
10:00am -
10:30am
|
Break – Courtyard
|
|
10:30am -
11:00am
|
HOTSPOTS I*:
Six Personal Views of the Future
|
|
11:00am -
11:30am
|
“From Mainframe to
Personal Healthcare: Proactive Technologies for a Global Age Wave”: With
Eric Dishman, General Manager & Global Director, Intel Health Research
& Innovation Group; hosted by tbd
|
|
11:30am -
12:00pm
|
“ChinaPan: Consumers and Producers of the 21st
Century”: Joseph Kruzich, U.S.
Consulate, Shenyang, China; Sidney Rittenberg, Founder, Rittenberg
Associates; hosted by Scott Foster, Senior VP, HSBC Securities, Tokyo
|
|
12:00pm -
1:30pm
|
Lunch on the Windsor Lawn
Go Electric! Have lunch against a
backdrop of sheer, shiny horsepower, fueled by electricity. See the new
Tesla Roadster production vehicle, and Altairnano’s SUV and SUT electric
conversions, on display for you to view “up close and personal”
|
|
1:00pm -
1:30pm
|
tbd
|
|
1:30pm -
2:15pm
|
“The Future of Personal Computers”: Toshio Morohoshi, Corporate Vice President and Executive Officer,
Fujitsu Ltd.; hosted by Mark Anderson
|
|
2:15pm -
2:45pm
|
HOTSPOTS II*: Six Personal Views of the Future
- tbd
- tbd
- tbd
- Luigi
Mercone, Sr. Director, Product
Strategy, Symantec
- Ray
Siuta, HP HALO Marketing Manager,
Hewlett-Packard
- Kevin
Walter, Sr. Dir. Strategic Initiatives, EMC
|
|
2:45pm -
3:30pm
|
“The Future of Printing and Imaging”: Vyomesh Joshi, EVP Imaging
and Printing Group, Hewlett-Packard; hosted by Mark Anderson
|
|
3:30pm -
4:00pm
|
Break – Courtyard
|
|
4:00pm -
5:00pm
|
Breakouts (Locations
TBA onsite):
I. “Big
Energy from Small Things: A New Nano-based Fuel Cell”: Moderated
by Steve Waite, Managing Director, Consilient Capital; with Josh Wolfe, The
Wolfe/Forbes Report; Dave Vieau, CEO, A123 Systems; and Keith Blakely, CEO,
Nanodynamics
II. “Internet Security vs.
Coordinated Attacks”: Moderated by Mark Bregman, CTO, Symantec
III. CTO Roundup: “ArchiTechs” Working Session, hosted by David Brin
IV. “Breakout Imaging Technologies”: Moderated
by Vyomesh Joshi, EVP Imaging and Printing Group, Hewlett-Packard
|
|
5:15pm -
7:45pm
|
Reception and Special
Tour of Next-Generation Visualization and Networking Facilities of the California
Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology (Calit2) at UC
San Diego, hosted by Internet pioneer Larry Smarr, director of Calit2
– Buses depart promptly at 5:15 from the hotel’s main entrance
|
|
7:45pm -
|
Dinner – Unscheduled
(Note: don’t forget 30-45 min. travel back from UCSD in making dinner plans)
|
|
|
|
|
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Thursday,
May 24
|
|
7:00am -
7:55am
|
Breakfast – Crown Room
|
|
8:00am -
8:30am
|
“Russia’s
Future: From Military Superpower to Energy Superpower”: A conversation
with Bob Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International; hosted by Mark
Anderson
|
|
8:30am -
9:00am
|
HOTSPOTS III*: Six Personal Views of the Future
FIRESTARTERS
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdpf
- FS/tbdpf
|
|
9:00am -
9:30am
|
“Fixing
Healthcare: Insourcing Answers”: William Haseltine, Chair, Haseltine
Global Health LLC; hosted by tbd
|
|
9:30am -
10:00am
|
“Fabricating Fuel”: A conversation with Martin Tobias, CEO, Imperium Renewables; hosted by
Mark Anderson
|
|
10:00am -
10:30am
|
Break – Courtyard
|
|
10:30am -
11:00am
|
“aids2031:
The future of AIDS”: Dr. Peter Piot, Executive Director, UNAIDS, and
Under Secretary-General of the United Nations; hosted by Heidi Larson,
Harvard Center for Population and Development
|
|
11:00am -
11:30am
|
“Tesla Motors: The Cars of Tomorrow, Today”: Martin Eberhard, CEO, Tesla Motors; Nate
Lewis, Caltech; Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist; hosted by Elon Musk, Chair,
Tesla Motors
|
|
11:30am -
12:00pm
|
“The New Europe”: A conversation with Leif Pagrotsky, MP and past Minister of Trade and
Culture, Sweden, and Vice Chair, European Central Bank; hosted by Mark
Anderson
|
|
12:00pm -
1:00pm
|
Lunch
|
|
1:00pm -
1:30pm
|
“Strategic
Philanthropy”: Peter Diamandis, Chair and CEO, X-Prize Foundation;
Suzanne DiBianca, Chief Service Officer and Executive Director,
Salesforce.com Foundation; Kamran Elahian, Chair, Global Catalyst Partners;
hosted by Bill Janeway, Senior Advisor, Warburg Pincus
|
|
1:30pm -
2:00pm
|
“Arizona's Catalysts For a 21st-Century
Economy - Science, Engineering and Medicine”: With William C.
Harris, President and CEO of Science Foundation of Arizona; and Don Budinger,
Chair, SFAz; hosted by tbd
|
|
2:00pm -
2:30pm
|
“Tomorrow’s Global
Venture Trends Today”: Barry Taylor, Managing Director, Warburg Pincus;
Simeon Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture Partners; Jeb Terry,
President, Aberdeen Investment Management Inc.; Michael Pfeffer, Managing Partner, Kolohala Ventures; moderated
by Jo Taylor, Managing Partner, 3i Venture
|
|
2:30pm -
3:00pm
|
FIRESTARTERS
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdwp
- FS/tbdpf
|
|
3:00pm -
3:30pm
|
Break – Courtyard
|
|
3:30pm -
4:30pm
|
Breakouts (Locations TBA onsite):
I. “Fixing
Healthcare”: Moderated by William
Haseltine, Chair, Haseltine Global Health LLC
II. “FiReStarters: How We Did It, From
Conception to Product": The
FiReStarters CEOs
III. “Building the Cars of Tomorrow”: Co-moderators Martin
Eberhard, CEO, Tesla Motors; and Alan Gotcher, CEO, Altairnano; with Nate
Lewis, Caltech; and Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist
IV. “The First Successful SpaceX Demo
Rocket Launch”: With Elon Musk, CEO, Space Exploration Technologies Inc.
|
|
5:00pm -
5:30pm
|
Break – Courtyard
|
|
4:30pm -
6:30pm
|
Meet the FiReStarters: Exhibition with cocktails in
the Grand Ballroom
|
|
6:45pm
|
Meet in front of the
hotel at 6:45 sharp to walk
together to the dock!
|
|
7:00pm -
10:00pm
|
Harbor cruise and dinner aboard the Spirit of San
Diego
|
|
|
|
|
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Friday,
May 25th
|
|
7:00am -
7:55am
|
Breakfast – Crown Room
|
|
8:00am -
8:30am
|
“Regenerative Medicine: The Future of Stem Cells”: A conversation with Randall Moon, Founder
of the University of Washington Institute for Regenerative Medicine, hosted
by Mark Anderson
|
|
8:30am -
9:00am
|
“Diagnosing Your Own DNA”: Ryan Phelan, Founder and CEO, DNA Direct; hosted by Stewart Brand, Founder,
the Long Now Foundation
|
|
9:00am -
9:30am
|
“SNS Project Inkwell: Taking Off”: CJ Holthaus,
Centaur / VIA; George Warren, AMD; Craig Bartholomew, Microsoft; John Costello,
Gateway - A panel discussion with Inkwell members, hosted by Bruce Wilcox,
CEO, SNS Project Inkwell
|
|
9:30am -
10:00am
|
“To the Moon, Mars and
Beyond": John M. Falker, Lead, ATA Strategic Integration,
Constellation Program SE&I, NASA Johnson Space Center; hosted by Jim Peoples,
Grassroots Marketing
|
|
10:00am -
10:30am
|
“CTO RoundUp: And the Solution Is --”: Jeffrey Nick, CTO and SVP, EMC; Mark
Bregman, CTO, Symantec; Tom Malloy, CTO, Adobe; hosted by author and
physicist David Brin
|
|
10:30am -
11:00am
|
“Looking Further”: A conversation with Kim Stanley
Robinson, Science Fiction Author; hosted by Glen Hiemstra, Founder,
Futurist.com
|
|
11:00am -
11:30am
|
“Your Turn: The Next Five Years”: A group conversation
with Mark Anderson
|
|
11:30am -
12:00pm
|
Closing Comments and Adjournment: Mark Anderson
|
1:00pm Note:
Hewlett-Packard HALO bus trips to Rancho Bernardo for live demonstrations of
this telepresence experience, during this afternoon, by special
arrangement.
There’s obviously a lot of meat on this bone, but here are a
few selected trends that I think stand out:
WiMax and Beyond:
Beceem Communications. Broadband chips
are the name of the game in computers, phones and nets for the foreseeable
future.
Biomimicry: From
wing shapes to protein structure, we are learning that nature has already
solved most of our problems. All we have
to do is look carefully.
The Future of Energy
on a Nano Scale: FiRe FiVe will
include the unveiling of a new nano-based fuel cell technology.
Fabricating Fuel: The CEO of the country’s largest biodiesel
facility gives the pragmatic view.
The Future of
Personal Computers: A rising star
from Fujitsu shows the Asian view of both the computer, and the universe of
technologies surrounding it.
The Future of
Printing and Imaging: As we move
into the age of Visual Computing, Vyomesh Joshi of HP may be the person best
positioned to describe, and create, that future.
Fixing Healthcare:
Insourcing Answers: Prizewinning
geneticist William Haseltine turns his mind to importing medical prices from
emerging countries with first-rate healthcare.
aids2031: The future
of AIDS, with the world’s expert on this subject, Peter Piot from the WHO
and UN; this isn’t going away, and in fact, it’s part of our future.
Diagnosing Your Own
DNA: Continuing the trend set by
Nobelist Lee Hartwell, Ryan Phelan explains how to link your own genetics to
your own healthcare.
To the Moon, Mars and
Beyond: NASA’s John Falker takes us
there. And let me add that Elon Musk
will have his own breakout on the success of the new Falcon 1 launch; with
film.
Russia’s
Future: From Military Superpower to Energy Superpower: Bob Hormats brings us his global Goldman view
of how to work with Russia
going forward.
ChinaPan:
Consumers and Producers of the 21st Century: If so, who’s left on first?
The New Europe: Leif Pagrotsky, past Minister of Trade and of
Culture in Sweden, and
current Vice Chair of the ECB, shares his views of Europe’s
future.
I know I haven’t covered them all, but that’s the point of
being selective. What are they saying,
as a group?
Healthcare is broken,
and will take enormous work and resources to fix. This isn’t optional.
Computers come in
universes of gadgets today, and those designs come from Asia.
Russia is going over a cliff politically, even
as it grows economically; can you spell Dangerous?
Freedom from oil is
years, not decades, away, if we put our investment into electric vehicles
and alternative fuels.
China and Japan,
enemies in the minds of one another and most of the world, are about to become
primary allies, joined at the hip of economic interest.
There’s a lot more, but you can sense the combined themes
here: these are areas of real, dynamic change, which will affect all of
us. These trends represent real problems
with real solutions, for which future businesses, governments and consumers
will spend real money.
This agenda, with other materials on speakers and
participants, will be available on a constantly-updated basis at the FiRe
website, where you may also register:
www.futureinreview.com
Regardless of whether you attend FiRe, if you’re in
technology, you will need to understand how these trends work, what is moving
them, and where they are taking us, so that you can infuse your product and
marketing plans with that information.
Your comments are always welcome.
Sincerely,
Mark R. Anderson
CEO
Strategic News Service
LLC
Tel. 360-378-3431
P.O. Box
1969 Fax.
360-378-7041
Friday Harbor, WA 98250
USA Email:
sns@tapsns.com
-------------------------------------------
INSITES
SNS readers interested in additional predictions and information
can turn their browsers to:
The SNS website, at http://www.stratnews.com.
The SNS Blog, at http://www.tapsns.com/blog
The SNS Media Page, at http://www.tapsns.com/media.php
SNS Future In Review Conference, at http://www.futureinreview.com
SNS Members' Corner, at http://www.tapsns.com/subscriber_corner.shtml
SNS Members' Gallery Spotlight Page: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php
SNS Project Inkwell: http://www.projectinkwell.com
The Orca Relief Citizens' Alliance, a
501(c)(3) non-profit effort to study and reduce Orca mortality rates, supported
largely by technology workers. Please visit our website, at http://www.orcarelief.org, for more
information. Contributions may be sent to: ORCA, Box 1969, Friday Harbor,
Washington, 98250.
Quotes of the Week:
“The president must
acknowledge that his conduct has compromised the integrity and effectiveness of
the World Bank Group and has destroyed the staff's trust in his
leadership. He must act honorably and
resign.” -- The World Bank Group Staff Association, demanding that Paul Wolfowitz
step down.
“Yet, it is
alleged, the terms of the appointment, which appear astonishingly generous,
violate a number of Bank protocols. Worse, it now appears Mr Wolfowitz
personally directed the Bank’s head of human resources to offer his girlfriend
these exceptional terms. Worse still, this has come out after misleading claims
by a senior official that the ethics committee of the board, in consultation
with the general counsel, approved the agreement.
“What then do we see here? The answer is: an apparent
violation of Bank rules; favouritism that borders on nepotism; and a possible
cover-up. It is true Mr Wolfowitz and Ms Riza were put in a difficult position.
Even so, what has come out would be bad in any institution. In an institution
that spear-heads the cause of good governance in the developing world, it is
lethal.
“The World Bank has moved from being a self-proclaimed
exemplar of best practice in corporate governance to an example of shoddiness.
As long as Mr Wolfowitz stays, this can be neither repaired nor forgotten, be
it outside the Bank or inside it. In the interests of the Bank itself, he
should resign. If he does not, the board must ask him to go.” -- The FT, last
Thursday.
“We're not building another cellular voice
network. Our killer application for this
new network is mobile access to the Internet.” -- Barry West, Sprint’s chief
technology officer, to the Chicago Tribune.
“It won’t be easy
for OLED TVs to replace LCD TVs, but we would like to turn OLED TVs into a big
new business.” -- Sony Executive Deputy President Katsumi Ihara, in a speech at
a recent display forum.
“It has been our vision to make Internet
advertising better - less intrusive, more effective and more useful. Together with DoubleClick, Google will make
the Internet more efficient for end users, advertisers and publishers.” -- Sergey
Brin, Google co-founder and president of technology, in a statement announcing
Google’s intent to purchase DoubleClick.
“Microsoft may well
be using the program to bring in the best and the brightest. But it’s definitely not representative of how
the H-1B program is being used today.” -- Ronil Hira, Rochester Institute of
Technology, noting that the top ten visa requestors were all India-based
outsourcing companies; quoted in the NYTimes.
“Officers, don’t
fulfill illegal orders! Officers, stop!”
-- Mikhail Kasyanov, Vladimir Putin’s former Prime Minister, as he was arrested
walking toward a government protest last week; NYTimes.
“It isn’t possible
to change this government through democratic means. There can be no change without force,
pressure.” -- exile Boris Berezovsky, in London,
declaring plans to overthrow Putin with a coup.
“We were walking
down the middle of the pedestrian walkway, not holding any flags or even
shouting. They cut us off on both sides
and when we stepped into a café the police pursued us and took us out. I say ‘police,’ but they failed to identify
themselves or give any reason for our arrest.” -- Chess grand master and
opposition leader Garry Kasparov, on being arrested in Moscow last week; quoted in the WSJ.
“They excluded
people from a White House event because they posed a threat of being
disruptive.” -- Lawyer for a private security guard (now being sued) who
ejected Alex Young and Leslie Weise from a White House gathering because of an
antiwar bumper sticker on their car.
UPGRADES
Following the LCD Money
Screens tend to represent the most expensive real estate in
the PC laptop and phone worlds, and so are important from several perspectives:
first, their cost bases set a low-water mark for overall unit pricing; second,
this can act as a brake or accelerator on global sales of these platforms from
year to year and quarter to quarter; and third, they require very large-scale
investments, generally (not exclusively) are made in Asia, and depend on
shifting technologies while seeking a return (Sony’s release of OLED screens
last week would be Exhibit A).
Today, units sold basically distribute across three major
platforms: TVs, computers and handhelds, with the sweet spot in size for each
in the 27”+ (diagonal), 12” and handheld-range 2x2” sizes. (Indeed, Sharp announced a new screen in this
latter category this week, that will increase contrast by 4x.)
Well, that was yesterday.
This business is in for continued positive YTY growth rates,
but the size landscape is shifting quickly.
On the high end, LCD technology is finally creeping into the 42”+
landscape long dominated (in pricing and sales) by plasma; I expect this coming
Q4 to be the first quarter when LCDs outsell plasma in this critical
battleground. Plasma prices are already
coming down dramatically in a defensive move, with new sales on at both Dell
and Costco in the last couple of months. Although LCD may not be the pricing
winner, its clarity and other winning features will still give it an advantage
this year.
At the smaller TV/larger PC end, we now have a new size
where the two overlap, and where clever sellers (Dell’s new offering comes to
mind here as well) have positioned single offerings for both markets. With the increased flattened rectangle of the
new DVD and HD imaging, the increased use of PCs as viewing stations for
entertainment content, and the ongoing repurposing of computer technology into
entertainment rooms and jobs, it makes sense that these would merge. Who needs two 20” screens next to each other
doing different things?
As these markets merge, the push for Web page and
entertainment display on handhelds is reversing the prior move toward smaller
screens; the latest models of the hottest items are not square, but both larger
and rectangular, moved by the same issues as TV/PC screens.
All in all, it isn’t hard to see new converged Poisson
distribution peaks for LCDs in the TV/PC and handheld markets. What’s next?
A third major peak, coming in the SNS CarryAlong PC category, or what
Microsoft calls “CarryAlong” on its site (after SNS, no doubt) and UMPC out in
the retail world. Better pricing and
higher volume on 7-9” rectangular screens will make this the next growth area
in LCD production. It started last year,
is still slow, but will pick up dramatically in 2008, as Asian manufacturers
find its utility and move their own brands into the U.S. market.
I saw five or six of these last week at our Project Inkwell
meeting, and they were all getting Wows from a pretty sophisticated audience
(the Inkwell Working Group). Asus,
Quanta, Samsung, VIA, Compal, HP and others are all working on growing this
category, and I fully expect they’ll succeed.
Get ready, Sharp and Samsung.
Intel Numbers
There are some quarters when the numbers come from great
sales and new successes, and others when they come from firing everyone you
don’t know well enough and turning the mess over to a great CFO. This quarter would be closer to category B.
Net income for Q1 was up 19% YTY, to $1.61B, from $1.36B; on
sales of $8.85B, down 1% YTY from $8.94B.
The company recognized revenues using money previously set
aside to pay taxes, to pick up another $300MM (nice one, Andy Bryant);
inventory remained flat during the quarter, although the company expected a
slight uptick next quarter.
Operating expenses fell 15% to $2.76 billion. Intel said
both research and development, and marketing, general and administrative costs
fall. It also reduced its work force to 92,000 people a quarter ahead of
schedule.
First-quarter gross margin was 50.1%, up from 49.6% the
previous quarter but down from 55.1% a year earlier.
Clearly, AMD continues to put Intel’s feet to the fire, even
as it plays catch-up in chip speeds and numbers of cores per chip. You can literally feel the competition
between these two companies in a new way, with the tables now turned: AMD is
run by tech whiz Hector Ruiz, and Intel is run by marketing guy Paul
Otellini.
That’s a huge change for both companies, and it’s strange to
see Intel announcing new technologies that AMD has had for several years. Has Intel finally found the secret to
competing with the New AMD? I don’t see
it. That would involve coming out with
technologies AMD would later have to copy.
EMC Numbers
And then there is the old-fashioned way of making money. EMC continues to hit good numbers, by selling
more.
Q1 profit was up 15% YTY, from $272.5MM to $312.6MM; on
revenues up 17% YTY, to $2.98B.
One area of strength was in sales of VMware, with revenues
up 95% to $256MM; CEO Joe Tucci said he “easily” expects to see $1B in related
sales total this year (the product line did $709MM last year).
A second strong suit was in overall revenues in Asia-Pacific
and Japan.
Tucci noted that high-end growth in storage has hit a
plateau in the 4% range, and that SMBEs is where the current and future growth
will be.
Overall, from this and other reports, one senses two major
enterprise-level trends: a general move from capital investment to cost-tuning,
and a simultaneous geographic shift in spending from the U.S. into other markets, primarily in Asia.
EMC was smart enough to pick up VMware, which grabs the
first of these trends as virtualization cuts into server sales; and Tucci’s
acquisition of RSA more recently will, I think, also pay off, as the company
extends its own markets beyond storage into the security of what is stored.
This company is showing that it has what it takes in both
execution and strategy to keep the ball moving.
Nice work, Joe.
ETHERMAIL
Re: ***SNS*** Nokia: At The Top Of
Its Game
Mark,
You can call me the resident Apple cynic if you like. As to whether the iPhone
is an original, check out the Onyx prototype that Synaptics - who make the
sensor screen that does everything neat in the iPhone, like recognising a large
area like your cheek or the inside of your pocket - was demo’ing around last
summer. The document on their website is strangely familiar.
As to the DRM revelation;
let's hope it's not EMI proving that there is no market for DRM-free content by
jacking up the price and watching cheapskates stick to the DRM version. (That's Simon Bisson's conspiracy theory but
I'm not blowing it out of the water either, as the alternative is that the RIAA
got smart and how often does that happen?)
Very good to see Evan Smouse
in the family; I had very interesting conversations with him about mice and
digital cameras some years ago and I'd been wondering where he'd got to ;-)
Mary Branscombe
Technology journalism & consultancy
www.marybranscombe.com
London
Mary,
I can see why Simon would propose such a theory, even if it
didn’t equate to RIAA intelligence. But
I doubt that’s the idea.
It’s much more likely, I think, that Steve had to fly with
the most likely vendor first, in order to prove to (or squeeze) the rest of the
crowd that DRM just wasn’t paying off in a copy-for-free CD-laden universe.
Even so, the question then becomes the issue that made Simon
suspicious: will anyone pay the added fare for these added rights? And here we hit the RIAA’s worst nightmare:
what if the public has already set a price, in its collective mind, and that is
now what the market will bear?
For students, the price has been FREE for all their
lifetimes, albeit not legitimately. For
their parents, it has always been $18 albums/CDs. I can easily see a world in which one
generation pays the premium, but doesn’t buy much, while the younger generation
decides it is just Not Interested.
This is the greatest risk that the industry has taken,
probably without even recognizing it: that, by dallying so long, it won’t lose
everything.
By golly, I think they’ve done it.
Mark Anderson
Mark,
This will make all SNSers
laugh out loud.
http://blog.wired.com/underwire/2007/04/so_not_happy_to.html
Steve Waite
Founder
Consilient Capital
NYC
Steve,
OK, that’s the funniest business video I’ve seen in ten
years. It should be required viewing for
every band in the world, if not every business student.
-- Right up there with Spinal Tap.
Mark Anderson
__________
THE MEMBERS’ CORNER
From Sharon Anderson-Morris/“SAM”
Welcome to the SNS Members’ Corner!
Next Big SNS Event: The
fifth annual Future in Review Conference (“FiRe FiVe”), May 22-25, at the Hotel
del Coronado, San Diego, California:
In the weeks leading up to our FiRe 2007 Conference, I will
be writing about some of the very special conference highlights. One of our
most prominent highlights is the pioneer
launch of our FiReStarters program.
FiReStarters – What is
it?
We have selected 10 businesses – top startups or businesses
with new startup technology – based on nominations by trusted strategic
investment SNS Members, for world promotion as part of this pioneering program
at FiRe 2007. These are businesses which we, and those businesses who nominated
them, believe will change our world in a positive way. They are businesses we
believe you should know about.
Why did we create the
FiReStarters program?
Because we know our SNS Members have access to and knowledge
of key world-changing new businesses, or businesses with new technologies, that
are on the cusp of making great strides in improving our world – businesses
that deserve recognition, we invited a select number of SNS Member investment
firms to nominate businesses they know that fit into this high-caliber category
for our review for this launch. From these nominations, we selected 10
finalists for FiRe 2007. These are businesses we hope to follow for a very long
time.
What role will the 10
FiReStarters play at the Future in Review conference?
Up front and center (see agenda info below). In addition to
promoting these businesses before, during, and after FiRe, we will follow up
with each FiReStarter to learn how and in what ways their business has changed
as a result of their participation at FiRe.
Will we have access
to representatives from FiReStarters companies?
Yes – you will have the opportunity to meet the CEOs of all
FiReStarters businesses, in addition to the individuals from the investment
firms who brought these businesses to our attention. The FiReStarters and
investment firms are on the FiRe 2007 agenda as follows:
Wednesday, May 23:
You will meet CEO Alan Gotcher of Altairnano and see
Altairnano’s electric-battery-powered SUT (standard utility truck) and SUV on
the Windsor Lawn during lunch. We will also be selectively awarding up to 10
test rides with Alan in the SUT throughout the week.
Thursday, May 24:
The CEO of each FiReStarter will briefly describe his or her
business before the General Session in the Grand Ballroom.
Each FiReStarter will have a table set up all day in the Grand
Ballroom.
Panel: "Tomorrow's Global Venture Trends
Today": Featuring some of the smartest global investor SNS
Members who are involved in the FiReStarters Program: Barry Taylor, Managing
Director, Warburg Pincus; Simeon Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture
Partners; Jo Taylor, Partner, Global Venture Team, 3i; Jeb Terry, President,
Aberdeen Investment Management Inc.; Don Budinger, Chair and Founding Director,
The Rodel Foundations.
“FiReStarters: How We
Did It, From Conception to Product”: An afternoon breakout session for
anyone who wishes to meet the FiReStarters and join them in discussion.
Meet the FiReStarters:
Exhibition with cocktails in the Grand Ballroom: Last but not least, this
is just what it sounds like! We hope you attend our more intimate cocktail
reception, held at the end of the day in the Grand Ballroom.
———
I have previously introduced you to two of the 10
FiReStarters: Altairnano (http://www.altairnano.com/) and iCAD
Inc. (http://www.icadmed.com/), both
nominated by Jeb Terry, President and CEO of Aberdeen Investment Management
Inc. (http://www.aberdeeninvestment.com/).
This week’s two featured
FiReStarters are Veracode Inc. and Hawaii
NanoSciences:
1) Veracode Inc.
(veracode.com)
Veracode is the industry’s first provider of on-demand
application security reviews. A spinoff of Symantec Corp., Veracode is the
industry’s first company to leverage two key technology breakthroughs: patented
binary code analysis that inspects the entire application (including
third-party components) at the object code level and a software-as-a-service
delivery model. Veracode’s core service, SecurityReview™, enables organizations
to quickly assess security quality in any application or software component by
identifying security flaws, the absence or presence of critical security
features, and/or malicious code embedded in software. Veracode’s mission is to
make it so easy and cost-effective that all organizations are able to improve
the security quality of internally developed or externally sourced
applications. Veracode’s management team includes security experts from @stake,
Guardent, ISS, VeriSign, and Symantec.
VC Partner: Simeon
Simeonov, Technology Partner, Polaris Venture Partners
Participating at FiRe:
Matthew
Moynahan, CEO (Speaker)
Ashish
Larivee, Vice President, Product Management
2) Hawaii NanoSciences (www.hawaiinanosciences.com)
Hawaii NanoSciences (HNS) is a recently formed
high-technology startup, bringing nanotechnology innovations to mature
industries with existing mass markets. It has developed a strong technology
portfolio over three selected industries: paper/pulp, oil/gas (i.e., fossil
fuels), and consumer applied household products. In the paper/pulp industries,
HNS has created a unique non-fluorinated, grease-resistant coating technology.
It also has developed a novel approach to producing strong yet lightweight
paper. Finally, it is pursuing foaming in paper manufacture.
In the area of fossil-fuel applications, HNS has discovered a natural
extractant capable of purifying oil-contaminated soils and promoting extraction
(thus recovery) of heavy crude. It also is working on lowering the viscosity of
extracted crude so its transport over long-distance pipelines is facilitated.
Finally, opportunities abound for nanotechnology-led innovations in
consumer-applied household products. The initial focus of HNS is a laundry
additive that imparts stain repellency to washed garments and fabrics. The
company is currently negotiating the commercialization of this product. HNS is
currently working on a new website, which will be expanded soon to enhance its
exposure for FiRe.
VC Partner: Michael Pfeffer, Managing
Partner, Kolohala Ventures
Participating at FiRe:
David
Soane, Chairman and CEO (Speaker)
This issue’s featured
Spotlight Members are the CEOs of the above two FiReStarter businesses.
Here is a brief summary of each:
A) Matthew Moynahan,
CEO, Veracode
Matt Moynahan, chief executive officer of Veracode, is
responsible for all aspects of the company, including strategy, operations,
finance, product management, engineering, marketing, and business development.
Before joining Veracode, Matt was vice president of the
Consumer Products and Solutions division at Symantec, where his key
responsibilities included product management, product development, and quality
assurance. In that role, he was responsible for the definition and
implementation of Symantec Online Services. He also held the position of vice
president of Product Management for the client and host security division at
Symantec, where he oversaw product management and product strategy for
enterprise client and host product lines as well as the Norton consumer and
small-business product lines. Matt also served as Symantec’s senior director of
Strategic Marketing, where he developed Symantec’s corporate business and
marketing strategies.
B) David Soane, Chair
and CEO, Hawaii
NanoSciences
David Soane received his Ph.D. (1978) in Chemical Engineering
from the University of California, Berkeley.
From 1979 to 1994, he was a full-time member of the faculty at the Department
of Chemical Engineering, UC-Berkeley, where he published approximately 200
papers and two books (Polymers in Microelectronics
and Polymer Applications for
Biotechnology). His academic research spanned a wide range of topics,
including structure-property relations of polymers, membrane fabrication and
characterization, polymerization reaction engineering, photolithography and
interlayer dielectrics, gel and capillary electrophoresis, and novel MEMS
devices.
Since his departure from academia, David has focused his
energy on several high-technology startups. These ventures share a common
theme: applying leading scientific discoveries to mature industries with
established mass markets. In December 2006, David formed Hawaii NanoSciences to
develop and commercialize innovations in nanotechnology for three industries:
paper/pulp, oil/gas, and consumer applied products.
To see both Spotlight Members’ full bios and photos and
those of other SNS Members, go to: http://www.tapsns.com/gallery.php
If you aren’t yet
represented in the SNS Gallery but would like to be, please send your
digital photo and bio (350 words or less) to me at sam@tapsns.com, with a copy to our
Editor-in-Chief, Sally Anderson, at sally@tapsns.com.
———
More FiRe 2007 Highlights:
1) Hewlett-Packard
has graciously invited FiRe Participants on a private tour of the HALO
Collaborative Studio. This tour will change the way you perceive distance,
presence, and communication. Space is
limited, so if you would like to participate in this exclusive excursion,
please contact Theresa MacDonald at HP (Theresa.macdonald@hp.com) to sign up
on a first-come, first-reserved basis. Tour transportation will depart from the
Hotel del Coronado on Friday, May 25, at 1:30pm, returning at approximately
3:30.
2) Reception and
special tour of Next-Generation Visualization and Networking Facilities at
Calit2, UCSD. On Wednesday evening, May 23, SNS Member Larry Smarr will
host an update of last year’s extraordinary tour of Calit2 facilities and works
in progress. Buses will leave promptly at 5:15pm from the hotel’s main
entrance, going to the Calit2 photonics labs and more exciting new labs. Don’t
miss these amazing technological advances, available for our viewing for the
first time.
**Please contact me directly at 435-649-3645 for further
information about participating in FiRe 2007 programs, or attending or
sponsoring any SNS special events.**
Given our focus on all the new features at FiRe FiVe over
the coming month, the “Positions Sought / Opportunities Available” section of
the MC will temporarily be displayed only on our website. See the full listings
at http://www.tapsns.com/members/listings.php,
using your email address in lowercase to login.
I look forward to seeing many of you very soon at FiRe 2007,
and more of you, I hope, at another upcoming SNS world event!
Sharon Anderson-Morris / “SAM”
Director, SNS Programs
W: 435-649-3645
C: 704-651-1238
sam@tapsns.com
___________________________
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About the Strategic
News Service
SNS is the most accurate predictive letter covering the computer and telecom
industries. It is personally read by the top managers at companies such
as Intel, Microsoft, Dell, HP, Cisco, Sun, Google, Yahoo!, and Ericsson,
Telstra and China Mobile, as well as by leading financial analysts at the
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About the Publisher
Mark Anderson is president of Technology Alliance Partners, and of the
Strategic News Service(tm) LLC. TAP was founded in 1989, and provides trends
and marketing alliance assistance to firms leading the convergence of telecom
and computing. Mark is a Seybold Fellow. He is the founder of two
software companies and of the Washington Software Alliance Investors' Forum, Washington's premier
software investment conference; and has participated in the launch of many
software startups. He regularly appears on the Wall Street Review/KSDO,
CNN, and National Public Radio/KPLU programs. Mark is a member of the Merrill
Lynch Technology Advisory Board, and is an advisor and/or investor in Ignition
Partners, Mohr Davidow Ventures, Voyager Capital, and others.
Mark serves as Chair of the Future in Review Conferences, of Project Inkwell,
and of The Foresight Foundation. He is also President of Orca Relief
Citizens' Alliance.
Disclosure: Mark Anderson is a portfolio manager of a hedge fund. His
fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both
before and after the columns are published, and the position that his fund
takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information
in this newsletter represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.
On May 2nd Mark will be the opening speaker at the
Washington Software Alliance Investment Forum at the Bell
Harbor Conference
Center, Seattle. On May 22nd-25th, he will host
the Fifth Annual Future in Review Conference, at the Hotel del Coronado, San Diego; members may
register at www.futureinreview.com. On June 15th he will be speaking
in the EdNet Tele-Conference.
In between times, he will be watching the bright red fox as he passes back and
forth along the seacliff just in front of the house, impatient, like the rest
of us, for Spring.
Copyright 2007, Strategic News Service LLC
"Strategic News Service," "SNS," "Future In
Review," "FiRe," and "Project Inkwell" are all
registered service marks of Strategic News Service LLC.
ISSN 1093-8494